The Citadel vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
The Citadel7-3
▸
South Carolina3-7
Final
Williams-Brice Stadium
THE Team statsSC
387Total yards439
37Pass367
350Rush72
17First downs18
6-143rd down6-16
0Turnovers0
32:32Possession27:28
- Q4 6:07THE Tyler Renew 56 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–22
- Q4 8:40SCPharoh Cooper 41 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–22
- Q4 10:26THE Eric Goins 48 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q3 6:22SCBrandon Wilds 1 Yd Run (Elliott Fry Kick)14–16
- Q2 4:12SCElliott Fry 40 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 12:55SCElliott Fry 25 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q1 3:31THE Tyler Renew 7 Yd Run (Eric Goins Kick)14–3
- Q1 9:52SCElliott Fry 36 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:26THE Cam Jackson 59 Yd Run (Eric Goins Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
SC −20.5
Against the number
THE covered
line SC −20.5
Kickoff156 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
SC (top)THE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SC 0%
Closing line
SC −20.5
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
THE 23 – 22 SC
consensus, liveSC −20.5
The Citadel
- PassDominique Allen 2/3, 37 YDS
- RushTyler Renew 23 CAR, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAlex Glover 1 REC, 34 YDS
South Carolina
- PassPerry Orth 28/43, 367 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBrandon Wilds 16 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPharoh Cooper 11 REC, 191 YDS, 1 TD
26sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
137
Points / snap
0.33
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
57%
SC went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of The Citadel vs. South Carolina?
The Citadel 23, South Carolina 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
THE
SC
42%
Success rate
38%
-0.46
EPA / pass
0.50
0.30
EPA / rush
-0.05
43%
Early-down success
38%
20%
Pass success
42%
44%
Rush success
31%
5%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
16%
Stuffed rush rate
31%
8%
Pass rate
63%
6.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.7
THE
6.1 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
SC
6.7 yards to go on 3rd down
71 scrimmage snaps
| THE | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Total yards | 439 |
| 37 | Passing yards | 367 |
| 350 | Rushing yards | 72 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 2/3 | Comp/Att | 28/43 |
| 12.3 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 7-51 |
| 32:32 | Possession | 27:28 |
THE
4/7 with the model
−2.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
SC
8/9 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 15:00 THE punt on 4th & 3 at SC 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishTHE 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SC 5/10 scoring drives
SCPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 11Q1
THE TD2 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1
SCFG6 pl, 52 yds· own 30Q1
THE TD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
SCFG14 pl, 60 yds· own 33Q1
THE PUNT9 pl, 39 yds· own 23Q2
SCFG12 pl, 70 yds· own 7Q2
THE PUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q2
SCPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 32Q2
THE DOWNS4 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q2
THE PUNT7 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q3
SCTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
THE PUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3
SCPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 32Q3
THE FG12 pl, 62 yds· own 7Q3
SCTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4
THE TD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
SCDOWNS5 pl, 30 yds· own 24Q4
THE PUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 46Q4
SCDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 3Q4
THE END1 pl, -2 yds· opp 10Q4
- Q4 6:07THE Tyler Renew 56 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–22
- Q4 8:40SCPharoh Cooper 41 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–22
- Q4 10:26THE Eric Goins 48 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q3 6:22SCBrandon Wilds 1 Yd Run (Elliott Fry Kick)14–16
- Q2 4:12SCElliott Fry 40 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 12:55SCElliott Fry 25 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q1 3:31THE Tyler Renew 7 Yd Run (Eric Goins Kick)14–3
- Q1 9:52SCElliott Fry 36 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:26THE Cam Jackson 59 Yd Run (Eric Goins Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe Citadel were +20.5 — a 10% shot
#48 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #6 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →