South Carolina vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsLSU
- Q4 13:15LSUDerrius Guice 4 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)24–45
- Q3 0:39SCPharoh Cooper 43 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Elliott Fry Kick)24–38
- Q3 1:55LSUDarrel Williams 1 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)17–38
- Q3 5:02SCJerell Adams 36 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Elliott Fry Kick)17–31
- Q3 6:29LSUTravin Dural 62 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)10–31
- Q3 14:01LSULeonard Fournette 87 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:00LSUTrent Domingue 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 7:27SCRashad Fenton 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Elliott Fry Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:41LSUMalachi Dupre 10 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:15LSUDarrel Williams 4 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:02SCElliott Fry 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassPerry Orth 14/28, 200 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushShon Carson 6 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecPharoh Cooper 7 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrandon Harris 18/28, 228 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDerrius Guice 16 CAR, 161 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTravin Dural 4 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:15LSU +15%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
- Q2 7:41LSU +12%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 10 yds for a TD SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trent Domingue KICK)
- Q2 7:27SC +11%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the SCaro 49
- Q3 14:01LSU +9%
Leonard Fournette run for 87 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
- Q1 11:02SC +8%
Elliott Fry 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00LSU +7%
Trent Domingue 29 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. LSU?
South Carolina 24, LSU 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| SC | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 283 | Total yards | 624 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 228 |
| 74 | Rushing yards | 396 |
| 12 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-32 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 20:07 | Possession | 39:53 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:02 SC field goal on 4th & 3 at LSU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:15LSUDerrius Guice 4 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)24–45
- Q3 0:39SCPharoh Cooper 43 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Elliott Fry Kick)24–38
- Q3 1:55LSUDarrel Williams 1 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)17–38
- Q3 5:02SCJerell Adams 36 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Elliott Fry Kick)17–31
- Q3 6:29LSUTravin Dural 62 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)10–31
- Q3 14:01LSULeonard Fournette 87 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:00LSUTrent Domingue 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 7:27SCRashad Fenton 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Elliott Fry Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:41LSUMalachi Dupre 10 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:15LSUDarrel Williams 4 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:02SCElliott Fry 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1760, SC Elo 1581 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -9.6 (75% to win) — 27.6 points clear of LSU's market line of +18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #21 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →LSU leads 21–2–1 · LSU has won 9 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| SC | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 (#84) | CORE overall | +22.4 (#7) |
| +2 / +7 | offense / defense | +13 / -10 |
| 1.84 | points / drive | 2.69 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →