Toledo vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsARK
- Q4 0:52ARKTeam Safety 16–12
- Q4 9:30ARKCole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q3 5:09TOLDamion Jones-Moore 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)16–7
- Q2 1:06TOLJameson Vest 38 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 7:53ARKAlex Collins 21 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)6–7
- Q1 6:59TOLCorey Jones 5 Yd pass from Phillip Ely (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassPhillip Ely 21/38, 237 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDamion Jones-Moore 11 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCorey Jones 8 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrandon Allen 32/53, 412 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAlex Collins 20 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Henry 8 REC, 117 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:09TOL +32%
Damion Jones-Moore 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)
- Q4 7:12TOL +28%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael Roberts
- Q4 0:52TOL +27%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards for a SAFETY
- Q2 7:53ARK +18%
Alex Collins 21 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)
- Q4 5:24ARK +16%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 17 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST down
- Q4 2:46TOL +16%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the Toled 7
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Arkansas?
Toledo 16, Arkansas 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 515 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 412 |
| 81 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 15 | First downs | 30 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/38 | Comp/Att | 32/53 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-55 | Penalties | 9-85 |
| 22:05 | Possession | 37:55 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:42 TOL punt on 4th & 17 at ARK 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:52ARKTeam Safety 16–12
- Q4 9:30ARKCole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q3 5:09TOLDamion Jones-Moore 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)16–7
- Q2 1:06TOLJameson Vest 38 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 7:53ARKAlex Collins 21 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)6–7
- Q1 6:59TOLCorey Jones 5 Yd pass from Phillip Ely (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1792, TOL Elo 1516 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -13.4 (82% to win) — 8.6 points clear of TOL's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #4 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #22 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →| TOL | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.7 (#20) | CORE overall | +18.4 (#13) |
| +6 / -9 | offense / defense | +20 / +2 |
| 2.74 | points / drive | 3.16 |
| 1.45 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →