#12Phillip Ely

QB·Toledo·20158.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Phillip Ely is a Clutch Passer for Toledo. Phillip's 2015 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 381 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Phillip Ely's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

226/403 Comp/Att2965 Pass yards23 Pass TD10 INT56.1% Comp %

Rushing

16 Rush yards1 Rush TD26 Carries0.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat14
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	@Arkansas	W16-12	19.2	21/38	237	1	0	56.2	3	0	0.25
3	vsIowa State	W30-23	-0.3	11/28	138	1	1	8.3	8	0	0.10
4	vsArkansas State	W37-7	0.5	25/52	308	0	1	36.5	5	0	0.20
5	@Ball State	W24-10	-15.5	16/22	164	2	2	68.6	4	0	0.48
6	vsKent State	W38-7	-11.9	19/32	205	2	0	52.5	13	0	0.46
7	vsEastern Michigan	W63-20	-19.7	18/27	327	4	0	76.3	-8	0	0.82
8	@Massachusetts	W51-35	-9.5	26/47	355	5	3	67.1	6	0	0.35
10	vsNorthern Illinois	L27-32	-0.9	15/33	136	1	2	11.5	-3	0	0.06
11	@Central Michigan	W28-23	-3.1	23/39	322	2	0	76.6	-3	0	0.46
12	@Bowling Green	W44-28	7.5	16/24	208	1	1	89.0	-1	1	0.59
13	vsWestern Michigan	L30-35	4.9	16/33	280	2	0	64.8	0	0	—
1	vsTemple	W32-17	6.0	20/28	285	2	0	74.1	-8	0	0.60

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.4%

Passing plays

97.9%

Rushing plays

4.5%

Standard downs

36.3%

Passing downs

67.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / -0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.