Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsVAN
- Q4 0:33VANTrent Sherfield 2 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q4 8:38WKUTyler Higbee 9 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)14–6
- Q4 12:34VANTommy Openshaw 26 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q3 1:00WKULeon Allen 4 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)7–3
- Q2 1:42VANTommy Openshaw 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBrandon Doughty 19/30, 209 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLeon Allen 15 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Higbee 4 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJohnny McCrary 18/34, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRalph Webb 18 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecTrent Sherfield 4 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:33VAN +38%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 0:33WKU +38%
N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45
- Q3 1:00WKU +31%
Leon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
- Q4 8:38WKU +29%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tyler Higbee for 9 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
- Q4 12:34VAN +15%
Tommy Openshaw 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 12:28WKU +13%
Leon Allen run for no gain to the Vandy 30
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt?
Western Kentucky 14, Vanderbilt 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| WKU | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 385 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 217 |
| 37 | Rushing yards | 168 |
| 11 | First downs | 20 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 18/34 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-70 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 23:21 | Possession | 36:39 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:55 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:33VANTrent Sherfield 2 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q4 8:38WKUTyler Higbee 9 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)14–6
- Q4 12:34VANTommy Openshaw 26 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q3 1:00WKULeon Allen 4 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)7–3
- Q2 1:42VANTommy Openshaw 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1365, WKU Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN +3.8 (41% to win) — 8.3 points clear of WKU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #8 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| WKU | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.1 (#17) | CORE overall | -3.9 (#79) |
| +19 / +2 | offense / defense | -15 / -11 |
| 3.32 | points / drive | 0.69 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 1.53 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →