Florida International vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsUAB
- Q4 1:21UABCody Clements 15 Yd Run (Ty Long Kick)34–20
- Q4 13:40FIUDemarkus Perkins 31 Yd Interception Return (Austin Taylor Kick)34–13
- Q4 14:17FIUAustin Taylor 25 Yd Field Goal 27–13
- Q3 8:00FIUAustin Taylor 35 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 9:30FIUGlenn Coleman 85 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Austin Taylor Kick)21–13
- Q2 3:37FIUJonnu Smith 75 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Austin Taylor Kick)14–13
- Q2 5:39UABGerald Everett 29 Yd pass from Cody Clements (Ty Long PAT blocked)7–13
- Q2 8:44FIURichard Leonard 25 Yd Interception Return (Austin Taylor Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:36UABD.J. Vinson 2 Yd Run (Ty Long Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAlex McGough 9/24, 204 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAlex Gardner 19 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecGlenn Coleman 4 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCody Clements 16/29, 188 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJordan Howard 21 CAR, 102 YDS
- RecGerald Everett 2 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:30FIU +34%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 85 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
- Q2 3:37FIU +20%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
- Q2 5:39UAB +15%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 29 yds for a TD, (Ty Long BLOCKED)
- Q2 8:44FIU +14%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass intercepted for a TD Richard Leonard return for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
- Q1 13:36UAB +13%
D.J. Vinson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)
- Q3 8:00FIU +11%
Austin Taylor 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. UAB?
Florida International 34, UAB 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 297 | Total yards | 380 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 93 | Rushing yards | 184 |
| 9 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 9/24 | Comp/Att | 18/35 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 10-65 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 30:02 | Possession | 29:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:21 FIU punt on 4th & 1 at FIU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:21UABCody Clements 15 Yd Run (Ty Long Kick)34–20
- Q4 13:40FIUDemarkus Perkins 31 Yd Interception Return (Austin Taylor Kick)34–13
- Q4 14:17FIUAustin Taylor 25 Yd Field Goal 27–13
- Q3 8:00FIUAustin Taylor 35 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 9:30FIUGlenn Coleman 85 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Austin Taylor Kick)21–13
- Q2 3:37FIUJonnu Smith 75 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Austin Taylor Kick)14–13
- Q2 5:39UABGerald Everett 29 Yd pass from Cody Clements (Ty Long PAT blocked)7–13
- Q2 8:44FIURichard Leonard 25 Yd Interception Return (Austin Taylor Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:36UABD.J. Vinson 2 Yd Run (Ty Long Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1243, FIU Elo 1086 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -8.7 (73% to win) — 5.3 points clear of FIU's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #21 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| FIU | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | points / drive | 1.98 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 25% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →