#8Jordan Howard

RB·UAB·2015 20143.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jordan Howard is a 2-year Featured Back for UAB. Jordan's 2014 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 258 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Howard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1587 Rush yards13 Rush TD306 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions72 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume91
Explosiveness44
Consistency46
Receiving16

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency46th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Troy (SP+ -16).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTroy	W48-10	-15.9	19	179	9.4	2	—	—	—	0.65
2	@Mississippi State	L34-47	22.2	24	89	3.7	1	—	—	—	0.13
3	vsAlabama A&M	W41-14	—	5	11	2.2	0	—	—	—	-0.31
5	vsFlorida International	L20-34	-16.2	21	102	4.9	0	1	5	0	-0.16
6	@Western Kentucky	W42-39	-2.6	34	183	5.4	2	—	—	—	0.08
7	vsNorth Texas	W56-21	-9.4	16	67	4.2	1	1	12	1	0.36
8	@Middle Tennessee	L22-34	-8.7	32	121	3.8	1	1	3	0	0.04
9	@Arkansas	L17-45	12.2	19	90	4.7	0	2	15	0	0.33
10	@Florida Atlantic	W31-28	-10.4	35	167	4.8	2	2	21	0	—
11	vsLouisiana Tech	L24-40	-1.7	27	148	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.03
13	vsMarshall	L18-23	16.8	39	168	4.3	2	2	16	0	0.11
14	@Southern Miss	W45-24	-15.9	35	262	7.5	1	—	—	—	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.0%

Passing plays

2.8%

Rushing plays

50.5%

Standard downs

41.4%

Passing downs

10.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	UAB	3.7	0.280	—	76.7
2015	Indiana	3.5	0.370	+0.09	67.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.