Marshall vs. UL Monroe Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Marshall gets at UL Monroe: 20th at throwing it, against a unit 112th at defending the pass. Where UL Monroe gets at Marshall: 7th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 134th at keeping everything in front of them. Marshall is also 34th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 121st.
How
MRSHattacks
ULM
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
MRSH#20 of 138ULM#112 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
MRSH#34 of 138ULM#121 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
MRSH#27 of 138ULM#114 of 138
HowULMattacksMRSH
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ULM#7 of 138MRSH#134 of 138
The two teams
Marshall
Marshall is in year 2 under Tony Gibson. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 16th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 134th at keeping everything in front of them.
Marshall has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
- Offensefirst and second down#23projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#134projected
UL Monroe
UL Monroe runs it: Bryant Vincent's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 128th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+7.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UL Monroe has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#130projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1076, MRSH Elo 1387 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +14.3 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MRSH134th138thULMULM132nd111thMRSHThrough the air
MRSH125th70thULMULM136th128thMRSHOn the ground
MRSH131st112thULMULM135th89thMRSHStaying on the field
MRSH132nd111thULMULM133rd86thMRSHTaking care of it
MRSH77th126thULMULM1st107thMRSH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MRSH | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.2 (#110) | CORE overall | -24.8 (#138) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | -11 / +14 |
| 0.00 | points / drive | 1.08 |
| 4.09 | allowed / drive | 5.17 |
| 58% | three-and-outs | 58% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Marshall vs. UL Monroe?
Gridpex's model favors Marshall with a 82% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Marshall vs. UL Monroe?
The model projects Marshall by 14.3.
What time is Marshall vs. UL Monroe and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Malone Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →