Marshall vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Marshall gets at Missouri State: 20th at throwing it, against a unit 124th at defending the pass. Where Missouri State gets at Marshall: 2nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 134th at keeping everything in front of them. Marshall is also 23rd on first and second down, against a unit 114th.
How
MRSHattacks
MOST
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
MRSH#20 of 138MOST#124 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MRSH#23 of 138MOST#114 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
MRSH#34 of 138MOST#122 of 138
HowMOSTattacksMRSH
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MOST#2 of 138MRSH#134 of 138
The two teams
Marshall
Marshall is in year 2 under Tony Gibson. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 16th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 134th at keeping everything in front of them.
Marshall has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
- Offensefirst and second down#23projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#134projected
Missouri State
Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 136th at keeping a clean pocket.
Missouri State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#2projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#136projected
- Defensethrowing it#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1284, MRSH Elo 1387 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST +3.8 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MRSH134th76thMOSTMOST101st111thMRSHThrough the air
MRSH125th59thMOSTMOST109th128thMRSHOn the ground
MRSH131st115thMOSTMOST84th90thMRSHStaying on the field
MRSH132nd53rdMOSTMOST96th86thMRSHTaking care of it
MRSH75th46thMOSTMOST75th108thMRSH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MRSH | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.2 (#110) | CORE overall | -14.5 (#126) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | -10 / +5 |
| 0.00 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 4.09 | allowed / drive | 4.36 |
| 58% | three-and-outs | 80% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Marshall vs. Missouri State?
Gridpex's model favors Marshall with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Marshall vs. Missouri State?
The model projects Marshall by 3.8.
What time is Marshall vs. Missouri State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →