TDECU StadiumConference game
Sat, Nov 1, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 14 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 45 |
| HOU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HOU Elo 1507, WVU Elo 1300) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU -10.7 (79% to win) — 2.3 points of value on WVU versus the market line of -13.
WVU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
West Virginia 45, Houston 35.
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had HOU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass intercepted by #6 J.Scruggs at WVU20 #6 J.Scruggs return 80 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:33 #25 K.Hensley kick attempt good (H: #41 O.Straw, LS: #38 M.Moss)
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. rush middle for 34 yards gain to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:54, 1ST DOWN #25 K.Hensley kick attempt good (H: #41 O.Straw, LS: #38 M.Moss)
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete deep right to #16 J.Weimer caught at HOU30, for 53 yards to the HOU17 (#21 Z.Vedder), 1ST DOWN
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