Memphis
6-0·American Athletic· Elo 1723
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| UAB | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UAB Elo 1209, MEM Elo 1723) plus home-field advantage. That projects UAB +18.2 (9% to win) — 5.3 points of value on UAB versus the market line of +23.5.
UAB up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Memphis 24, UAB 31.
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Solomon Beebe run for 81 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
AJ Hill pass intercepted Pierre Royster return for no gain to the UAB 1
AJ Hill pass complete to Christian Ross for 37 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
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