Coastal Carolina vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsAPP
- Q4 1:56CCUJevon Edwards 8 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)45–37
- Q4 3:19CCUDominic Knicely 1 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)38–37
- Q4 9:03APPDominic De Freitas 23 Yd Field Goal 31–37
- Q3 0:04CCUJameson Tucker 37 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)31–34
- Q3 4:37APPDominic De Freitas 25 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q3 9:49CCUSamari Collier 6 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)24–31
- Q3 12:52APPJaden Barnes 77 Yd Punt Return (Dominic De Freitas Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 31 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 3:40CCUSamari Collier 4 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)17–21
- Q2 8:45APPJaden Barnes 6 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)10–21
- Q1 0:30CCUMalcolm Gillie 34 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)10–14
- Q1 3:26APPRashod Dubinion 12 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)3–14
- Q1 7:56CCUKian Afrookhteh 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:10APPDavion Dozier 15 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassSamari Collier 12/19, 118 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSamari Collier 17 CAR, 74 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJameson Tucker 1 REC, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJJ Kohl 27/41, 278 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJaquari Lewis 15 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecDavion Dozier 4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:19CCU +61%
Dominic Knicely run for 1 yd for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
- Q1 13:55APP +51%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Noah Arinze) to the CCU 37 for a 1ST down
- Q4 2:09CCU +38%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 12 yds to the APP 15 for a 1ST down
- Q4 3:08APP +31%
PENALTY APP False Start (Flowers,Will) 5 yards from APP19 to APP14. NO PLAY
- Q4 1:56CCU +22%
Jevon Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
- Q3 0:26CCU +13%
PENALTY APP Offside (Manuel,Dylan) 5 yards from APP42 to APP37. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. App State?
Coastal Carolina 45, App State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CCU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 410 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 278 |
| 246 | Rushing yards | 132 |
| 23 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/22 | Comp/Att | 27/41 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 28:32 | Possession | 31:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:00 APP go for it on 4th & 6 at APP 39. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56CCUJevon Edwards 8 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)45–37
- Q4 3:19CCUDominic Knicely 1 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)38–37
- Q4 9:03APPDominic De Freitas 23 Yd Field Goal 31–37
- Q3 0:04CCUJameson Tucker 37 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)31–34
- Q3 4:37APPDominic De Freitas 25 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q3 9:49CCUSamari Collier 6 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)24–31
- Q3 12:52APPJaden Barnes 77 Yd Punt Return (Dominic De Freitas Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 31 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 3:40CCUSamari Collier 4 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)17–21
- Q2 8:45APPJaden Barnes 6 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)10–21
- Q1 0:30CCUMalcolm Gillie 34 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)10–14
- Q1 3:26APPRashod Dubinion 12 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)3–14
- Q1 7:56CCUKian Afrookhteh 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:10APPDavion Dozier 15 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1360, CCU Elo 1206 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -8.6 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #31 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →App State leads 7–5 · Coastal Carolina has won 4 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| CCU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#115) | CORE overall | -18.4 (#121) |
| -8 / +8 | offense / defense | -10 / +9 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →