Kidd Brewer StadiumConference gameClosing line: APP -10.5 · CCU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 10 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 45 |
| APP | 14 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
Team stats
CCUthis game · better side highlightedAPP
410
Total yards
410164
Passing yards
278246
Rushing yards
13223
First downs
276-10 · 60%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
APP 1360
CCU 1206
Projected spread
APP -8.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
APP
74% to win
Market spread
APP -10.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
APP · market 77%
Our model blends Elo ratings (APP Elo 1360, CCU Elo 1206) plus home-field advantage. That projects APP -8.6 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
APP (top)CCU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: APP 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge APP.
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
CCU 8/11 scoring drives← own end zone →APP 6/9 scoring drives
APPTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
CCUFG7 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q1
APPTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
APP up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
APP went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. App State?
Coastal Carolina 45, App State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had APP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.