Austin Peay vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Austin Peay
▸
Middle Tennessee
Final
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
AUSTTeam statsMTSU
343Total yards153
193Pass109
150Rush44
19First downs13
7-173rd down0-12
0Turnovers0
38:35Possession21:25
- Q4 7:42AUSTAustin Smith 2 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick)34–14
- Q4 12:48AUSTCarson Smith 36 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 2:56MTSUNahzae Cox 14 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)24–14
- Q3 11:04AUSTCarson Smith 40 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 0:45MTSUNahzae Cox 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)21–7
- Q2 6:03AUSTJackson Head 4 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Carson Smith Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:38AUSTCourtland Simmons 1 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:45AUSTJaden Robinson 22 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Carson Smith Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
MTSU −15.5
Against the number
AUST covered
line MTSU −15.5
Kickoff160 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MTSU (top)AUST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MTSU 0%
Closing line
MTSU −15.5
Closing total
53.5
Model line
—
Actual result
AUST 34 – 14 MTSU
Austin Peay
- PassChris Parson 11/20, 142 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCourtland Simmons 10 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShemar Kirk 3 REC, 69 YDS
Middle Tennessee
- PassNicholas Vattiato 15/36, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJekail Middlebrook 11 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecNahzae Cox 6 REC, 50 YDS, 2 TD
25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
139
Points / snap
0.35
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
AUST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Austin Peay vs. Middle Tennessee?
Austin Peay 34, Middle Tennessee 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MTSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
AUST
MTSU
40%
Success rate
32%
0.39
EPA / pass
-0.24
0.04
EPA / rush
0.06
37%
Early-down success
40%
42%
Pass success
30%
39%
Rush success
39%
9%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
7%
22%
Stuffed rush rate
17%
40%
Pass rate
71%
8.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
9.8
AUST
8.8 yards to go on 3rd down
77 scrimmage snaps
MTSU
9.8 yards to go on 3rd down
62 scrimmage snaps
| AUST | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 343 | Total yards | 153 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 109 |
| 150 | Rushing yards | 44 |
| 19 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 0-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 14/27 | Comp/Att | 16/37 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 2.9 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-88 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 38:35 | Possession | 21:25 |
AUST
7/8 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
MTSU
8/10 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 7:33 AUST punt on 4th & 2 at AUST 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishAUST 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MTSU 2/13 scoring drives
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
AUSTTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1
MTSUPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
AUSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 8Q1
MTSUDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 47Q1
AUSTTD8 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1
MTSUPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
AUSTTD17 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1
MTSUPUNT5 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
AUSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 30Q2
MTSUTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2
AUSTEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 13Q2
AUSTFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q3
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
AUSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 23Q3
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 39Q3
AUSTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 12Q3
MTSUTD5 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3
AUSTPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
MTSUDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 38Q3
AUSTFG5 pl, 25 yds· opp 44Q4
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 40Q4
AUSTTD7 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q4
MTSUDOWNS11 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q4
AUSTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· opp 43Q4
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 28Q4
AUSTEND2 pl, -1 yds· own 43Q4
- Q4 7:42AUSTAustin Smith 2 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick)34–14
- Q4 12:48AUSTCarson Smith 36 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 2:56MTSUNahzae Cox 14 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)24–14
- Q3 11:04AUSTCarson Smith 40 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 0:45MTSUNahzae Cox 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)21–7
- Q2 6:03AUSTJackson Head 4 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Carson Smith Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:38AUSTCourtland Simmons 1 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:45AUSTJaden Robinson 22 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Carson Smith Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAustin Peay were +15.5 — a 17% shot
#9 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #13 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →