Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumClosing line: MTSU -15.5 · AUST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUST | 14 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 34 |
| MTSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Team stats
AUSTthis game · better side highlightedMTSU
343
Total yards
153193
Passing yards
109150
Rushing yards
4419
First downs
137-17 · 41%
Third down
0-12 · 0%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MTSU (top)AUST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MTSU 0%
Drive-by-drive
AUST 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MTSU 2/13 scoring drives
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
AUSTTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1
MTSUPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
AUST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
AUST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Austin Peay vs. Middle Tennessee?
Austin Peay 34, Middle Tennessee 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AUST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had AUST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.