| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
| KSU | 3 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KSU Elo 1666, ARMY Elo 1607) plus home-field advantage. That projects KSU -4.8 (64% to win) — 11.7 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of -16.5.
KSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Army 24, Kansas State 21.
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had KSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
Noah Short pass complete to Brady Anderson for 52 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST down
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 15 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST down
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