| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 10 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 31 |
| TENN | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
Nobody could get a stop. What separated Tennessee in a track meet.
Bring an abacus. Tennessee (4-1) outduels Arkansas (2-3), 34-31 at Neyland Stadium. The two sides combined for 65 points, and Tennessee had just a little more.
Arkansas struck first, the game was tied 17-17 at the break and the final points came on a late touchdown by Arkansas.
Tennessee never turned it over while Arkansas gave it away 2 times and Tennessee kept starting with shorter fields — about 6 yards better per drive. That's what carried Tennessee.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = ARKA ahead, below = TENN ahead.
Tennessee leaned on Joey Aguilar (221 passing yards, 1 TD), DeSean Bishop (146 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Braylon Staley (109 receiving yards). DeSean Bishop went well above his season norm — 146 rushing yards, 76% over his average.
Each bar is one regular-season game (official box). DeSean's 146 rushing yds in the title game was a season high — the 100th percentile of his own year.
The closing line had Tennessee -10.0. Arkansas covered. The total was 68.5; the teams combined for 65, an under.
Points were never the problem for Tennessee; stops will be the offseason project for both.
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1827, ARK Elo 1608) plus home-field advantage. That projects TENN -11.2 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: TENN
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — pregame model vs. market shown.
TENN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arkansas 31, Tennessee 34.
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Braylen Russell run for 15 yds to the TENN 14 Braylen Russell fumbled, recovered by ARK Arion Carter
Taylen Green run for 18 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Holding (Joshua Josephs) to the TENN 32 for a 1ST down
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 24 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST down
Key players' yardage vs their per-game season norm.
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
