Kansas vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsBAY
- Q4 9:31BAYIsaiah Hankins 40 Yd Field Goal 17–45
- Q3 0:07BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–42
- Q3 5:03KULawrence Arnold 14 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)17–35
- Q3 6:25BAYDawson Pendergrass 20 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–35
- Q3 10:58BAYBryson Washington 10 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–28
- Q2 6:00BAYJosh Cameron 14 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:16KUTabor Allen 26 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 1:08BAYMonaray Baldwin 39 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:51BAYMonaray Baldwin 36 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:18KUDevin Neal 19 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BAY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.8 vs 3rd & 4.4
- PassJalon Daniels 12/23, 280 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDevin Neal 20 CAR, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- RecQuentin Skinner 3 REC, 77 YDS
- PassSawyer Robertson 23/31, 310 YDS, 4 TD
- RushBryson Washington 28 CAR, 192 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMonaray Baldwin 7 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 583 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:08BAY +22%
Monaray Baldwin 39 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
- Q2 6:00BAY +20%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q1 2:51BAY +18%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 36 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q1 5:18KU +17%
Devin Neal run for 19 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
- Q3 10:58BAY +11%
Bryson Washington run for 10 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q2 9:16KU +10%
Tabor Allen 26 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Baylor?
Kansas 17, Baylor 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 491 | Total yards | 603 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 310 |
| 211 | Rushing yards | 293 |
| 18 | First downs | 32 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 13-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 12/23 | Comp/Att | 23/31 |
| 12.2 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 24:02 | Possession | 35:58 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:31BAYIsaiah Hankins 40 Yd Field Goal 17–45
- Q3 0:07BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–42
- Q3 5:03KULawrence Arnold 14 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)17–35
- Q3 6:25BAYDawson Pendergrass 20 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–35
- Q3 10:58BAYBryson Washington 10 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–28
- Q2 6:00BAYJosh Cameron 14 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:16KUTabor Allen 26 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 1:08BAYMonaray Baldwin 39 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:51BAYMonaray Baldwin 36 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:18KUDevin Neal 19 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1588, KU Elo 1714 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY +2.6 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #112 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Baylor leads 19–4 · Baylor has won 14 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| KU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.2 (#28) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#34) |
| +17 / +4 | offense / defense | +10 / -1 |
| 2.67 | points / drive | 2.77 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →