Furman vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Furman

00

Ole Miss

▸0076

Final

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
FURM	0	0	0	0	0
MISS	24	28	21	3	76

FURMTeam statsMISS

172Total yards772

146Pass529

26Rush243

7First downs37

3-173rd down8-14

1Turnovers0

30:50Possession29:10

Scoring plays

• Q4 11:42MISSCaden Davis 41 Yd Field Goal 0–76
• Q3 0:16MISSMatt Jones 46 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–73
• Q3 4:46MISSMatt Jones 17 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–66
• Q3 12:49MISSCayden Lee 35 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Caden Davis Kick)0–59
• Q2 1:34MISSTre Harris 22 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–52
• Q2 6:18MISSTre Harris 61 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–45
• Q2 8:00MISSCaden Prieskorn 46 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–38
• Q2 11:27MISSDae'Quan Wright 4 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–31
• Q1 0:58MISSCaden Davis 42 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 4:39MISSJJ Pegues 2 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:07MISSAntwane Wells Jr. 61 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:53MISSJaxson Dart 15 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MISS −45.5

Against the number

MISS covered

line MISS −45.5

What the numbers say

• FURM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MISS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MISS 100%50%FURM 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MISS (top)FURM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MISS 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MISS −45.5

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

FURM 0 – 76 MISS

Leaders

Furman

• PassCarson Jones 15/25, 119 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMyion Hicks 6 CAR, 23 YDS
• RecJoshua Harris 3 REC, 59 YDS

Ole Miss

• PassJaxson Dart 22/27, 418 YDS, 5 TD
• RushMatt Jones 3 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
• RecTre' Harris 8 REC, 179 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

147

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MISS up 73 entering the 4th quarter. Across 42 historically comparable game states (within ±7 pts and ±10 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MISS went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTennessee vs Kent State71-0WSouth Alabama vs Northwestern State87-10WOklahoma vs Arkansas State73-0WSMU vs Prairie View A&M69-0WIndiana vs Western Illinois77-3

Fourth downs

20 calls

FURM gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.FURM 10/14 · MISS 5/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Furman vs. Ole Miss?

Furman 0, Ole Miss 76.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

FURM

MISS

21%

Success rate

60%

-0.19

EPA / pass

0.54

-0.24

EPA / rush

0.62

23%

Early-down success

60%

22%

Pass success

57%

19%

Rush success

63%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

39%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

59%

Pass rate

58%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

FURM

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

MISS

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

84 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

FURM		MISS
172	Total yards	772
146	Passing yards	529
26	Rushing yards	243
7	First downs	37
3-17	3rd down	8-14
0-2	4th down	1-2
19/34	Comp/Att	29/45
4.3	Yards per pass	11.8
0.9	Yards per rush	6.6
1	Turnovers	0
10-84	Penalties	3-35
30:50	Possession	29:10

Fourth downs

20 calls

FURM

10/14 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

MISS

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 9:02 FURM punt on 4th & 1 at FURM 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

FURM 0/16 scoring drives← own end zone →MISS 12/16 scoring drives

MISSTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

FURMPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1

MISSTD2 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1

FURMINT2 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

MISSTD10 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

FURMPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

MISSFG5 pl, 20 yds· opp 45Q1

FURMDOWNS5 pl, 38 yds· own 25Q1

MISSTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q2

FURMPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

MISSTD2 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

FURMPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

MISSTD1 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

FURMPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2

MISSTD7 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

FURMPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q2

MISSMISS5 pl, 27 yds· own 37Q2

FURMPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 17Q3

MISSTD1 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q3

FURMPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3

MISSPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 16Q3

FURMDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· midfieldQ3

MISSPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 42Q3

FURMPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 22Q3

MISSTD4 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q3

FURMPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

MISSTD8 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3

FURMPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

MISSFG9 pl, 55 yds· own 22Q4

FURMPUNT8 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q4

MISSDOWNS10 pl, 64 yds· own 18Q4

FURMEND5 pl, 21 yds· own 18Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 11:42MISSCaden Davis 41 Yd Field Goal 0–76
• Q3 0:16MISSMatt Jones 46 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–73
• Q3 4:46MISSMatt Jones 17 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–66
• Q3 12:49MISSCayden Lee 35 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Caden Davis Kick)0–59
• Q2 1:34MISSTre Harris 22 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–52
• Q2 6:18MISSTre Harris 61 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–45
• Q2 8:00MISSCaden Prieskorn 46 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–38
• Q2 11:27MISSDae'Quan Wright 4 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–31
• Q1 0:58MISSCaden Davis 42 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 4:39MISSJJ Pegues 2 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:07MISSAntwane Wells Jr. 61 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:53MISSJaxson Dart 15 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →