New Mexico State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsFRES
- Q4 4:40FRESJalen Moss 9 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–37
- Q4 7:08FRESDylan Lynch 38 Yd Field Goal 10–30
- Q4 13:20FRESMikey Keene 4 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–27
- Q3 4:23NMSUDiego Pavia 14 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)10–20
- Q3 11:50FRESDylan Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 7:02FRESJaelen Gill 23 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–17
- Q2 10:47NMSUEthan Albertson 45 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 3:26FRESJosiah Freeman 26 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:17FRESDylan Lynch 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDiego Pavia 11/25, 58 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDiego Pavia 18 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Stowers 3 REC, 20 YDS
- PassMikey Keene 31/39, 380 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushMalik Sherrod 20 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecMalik Sherrod 8 REC, 81 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Fresno State?
New Mexico State 10, Fresno State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| NMSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 200 | Total yards | 500 |
| 58 | Passing yards | 380 |
| 142 | Rushing yards | 120 |
| 12 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/25 | Comp/Att | 31/40 |
| 2.3 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-42 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 29:10 | Possession | 30:50 |
- Q4 4:40FRESJalen Moss 9 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–37
- Q4 7:08FRESDylan Lynch 38 Yd Field Goal 10–30
- Q4 13:20FRESMikey Keene 4 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–27
- Q3 4:23NMSUDiego Pavia 14 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)10–20
- Q3 11:50FRESDylan Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 7:02FRESJaelen Gill 23 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–17
- Q2 10:47NMSUEthan Albertson 45 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 3:26FRESJosiah Freeman 26 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:17FRESDylan Lynch 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1514, NMSU Elo 1473 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects FRES -1.6 (56% to win) — 4.1 points clear of FRES's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #89 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Fresno State leads 20–1 · Fresno State has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| NMSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#55) | CORE overall | -3.7 (#81) |
| +4 / +3 | offense / defense | -3 / +1 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.66 |
| 2.24 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →