Columbia vs. Yale: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Columbia2-4

07

Yale3-3

▸0035

Final

Yale BowlConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
COLU	0	0	0	7	7
YALE	7	14	0	14	35

COLUTeam statsYALE

194Total yards459

120Pass234

74Rush225

13First downs27

6-153rd down9-15

0Turnovers1

22:16Possession37:44

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:11COLUJack Larsen 17 Yd pass from Joe Green (Hugo Merry Kick)7–35
• Q4 1:34YALENathan Denney 14 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–35
• Q4 14:26YALENolan Grooms 13 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–28
• Q2 1:43YALEMason Tipton 23 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)0–21
• Q2 13:08YALEJoshua Pitsenberger 3 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:32YALEJoshua Pitsenberger 1 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

YALE −7.5

Against the number

YALE covered

line YALE −7.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

COLU aheadYALE ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = COLU ahead, below = YALE ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

YALE −7.5

Closing total

40.5

Model line

—

Actual result

COLU 7 – 35 YALE

Leaders

Columbia

• PassJoe Green 16/32, 120 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJoey Giorgi 14 CAR, 46 YDS
• RecJJ Jenkins 6 REC, 51 YDS

Yale

• PassNolan Grooms 26/32, 234 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushNolan Grooms 14 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMason Tipton 8 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.6sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

137

Points / snap

0.31

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

YALE up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 669 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

YALE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3WJames Madison vs Bucknell38-3WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7

Fourth downs

14 calls

YALE gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.COLU 8/9 · YALE 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Columbia vs. Yale?

Columbia 7, Yale 35.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (YALE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

COLU

YALE

34%

Success rate

51%

-0.13

EPA / pass

0.33

0.12

EPA / rush

0.30

33%

Early-down success

48%

33%

Pass success

56%

35%

Rush success

48%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

6%

9%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

61%

Pass rate

44%

6.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

COLU

6.4 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

YALE

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

COLU		YALE
194	Total yards	459
120	Passing yards	234
74	Rushing yards	225
13	First downs	27
6-15	3rd down	9-15
0-2	4th down	2-2
16/32	Comp/Att	26/32
3.8	Yards per pass	7.3
2.8	Yards per rush	5.0
0	Turnovers	1
5-11	Penalties	2-20
22:16	Possession	37:44

Fourth downs

14 calls

COLU

8/9 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

YALE

3/4 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 2:43 YALE punt on 4th & 1 at YALE 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

COLU 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →YALE 5/11 scoring drives

COLUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 24Q1

YALETD10 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

COLUPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1

YALEPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 15Q1

COLUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 24Q1

YALETD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

COLUPUNT9 pl, 30 yds· own 22Q2

YALETD13 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2

COLUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 37Q2

YALEEND2 pl, 3 yds· own 39Q2

YALEMISS12 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q3

COLUPUNT7 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q3

YALEPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 9Q3

COLUDOWNS6 pl, 17 yds· own 35Q3

YALETD2 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q4

COLUDOWNS9 pl, 35 yds· own 33Q4

YALEINT7 pl, 28 yds· own 32Q4

COLUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 8Q4

YALETD9 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q4

COLUTD10 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4

YALEUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 16Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:11COLUJack Larsen 17 Yd pass from Joe Green (Hugo Merry Kick)7–35
• Q4 1:34YALENathan Denney 14 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–35
• Q4 14:26YALENolan Grooms 13 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–28
• Q2 1:43YALEMason Tipton 23 Yd pass from Nolan Grooms (Jack Bosman Kick)0–21
• Q2 13:08YALEJoshua Pitsenberger 3 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:32YALEJoshua Pitsenberger 1 Yd Run (Jack Bosman Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →