Chattanooga vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Chattanooga

0010

Alabama9-1

▸0066

Final

Bryant-Denny Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CHAT	0	7	3	0	10
ALA	21	17	14	14	66

CHATTeam statsALA

233Total yards574

107Pass259

126Rush315

11First downs21

4-143rd down6-9

1Turnovers0

33:31Possession26:29

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:17ALAJustice Haynes 33 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)10–66
• Q4 13:04ALARichard Young 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)10–59
• Q3 4:59ALACaleb Downs 85 Yd Punt Return (Will Reichard Kick)10–52
• Q3 8:39ALAJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)10–45
• Q3 10:46CHATClayton Crile 23 Yd Field Goal 10–38
• Q2 1:03ALAMalik Benson 20 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick)7–38
• Q2 3:39CHATGino Appleberry 40 Yd Run (Clayton Crile Kick)7–31
• Q2 7:07ALAWill Reichard 50 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 10:42ALARobbie Ouzts 7 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick)0–28
• Q1 1:30ALARoydell Williams 11 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:27ALAJase McClellan 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:04ALAJermaine Burton 5 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ALA −44.5

Against the number

ALA covered

line ALA −44.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ALA 100%50%CHAT 100%

Kickoff135 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ALA (top)CHAT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ALA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ALA −44.5

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

CHAT 10 – 66 ALA

Leaders

Chattanooga

• PassLuke Schomburg 10/21, 107 YDS, 1 INT
• RushGino Appleberry 22 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJavin Whatley 4 REC, 69 YDS

Alabama

• PassJalen Milroe 13/16, 197 YDS, 3 TD
• RushTy Simpson 1 CAR, 78 YDS
• RecJermaine Burton 3 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

115

Points / snap

0.66

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ALA up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 167 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ALA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky66-13WMemphis vs Bethune-Cookman56-14WWestern Carolina vs Charleston Southern77-28WYale vs Morgan State45-3WMonmouth vs Lehigh49-7

Fourth downs

13 calls

ALA gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.CHAT 9/9 · ALA 1/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Chattanooga vs. Alabama?

Chattanooga 10, Alabama 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CHAT

ALA

26%

Success rate

54%

0.23

EPA / pass

0.67

-0.15

EPA / rush

0.66

25%

Early-down success

52%

35%

Pass success

48%

20%

Rush success

59%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

14%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

40%

Pass rate

44%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.7

CHAT

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

ALA

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CHAT		ALA
233	Total yards	574
107	Passing yards	259
126	Rushing yards	315
11	First downs	21
4-14	3rd down	6-9
0-0	4th down	0-0
10/21	Comp/Att	19/24
5.1	Yards per pass	10.8
3.6	Yards per rush	9.5
1	Turnovers	0
5-25	Penalties	3-25
33:31	Possession	26:29

Fourth downs

13 calls

CHAT

9/9 with the model

nothing given up

ALA

1/3 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 9:06 ALA punt on 4th & 1 at ALA 35. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.77 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CHAT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ALA 9/12 scoring drives

ALATD4 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1

CHATPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1

ALATD5 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

CHATPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1

ALATD11 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1

CHATPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

ALAPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 28Q1

CHATPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q2

ALATD3 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2

CHATINT4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2

ALAFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 38Q2

CHATTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

ALATD5 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

CHATEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 23Q2

CHATFG9 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q3

ALATD6 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q3

CHATTD5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3

CHATPUNT9 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q3

ALATD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

CHATPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 23Q4

ALAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 26Q4

CHATPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 23Q4

ALATD6 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q4

CHATPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 28Q4

ALAEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:17ALAJustice Haynes 33 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)10–66
• Q4 13:04ALARichard Young 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)10–59
• Q3 4:59ALACaleb Downs 85 Yd Punt Return (Will Reichard Kick)10–52
• Q3 8:39ALAJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)10–45
• Q3 10:46CHATClayton Crile 23 Yd Field Goal 10–38
• Q2 1:03ALAMalik Benson 20 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick)7–38
• Q2 3:39CHATGino Appleberry 40 Yd Run (Clayton Crile Kick)7–31
• Q2 7:07ALAWill Reichard 50 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 10:42ALARobbie Ouzts 7 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick)0–28
• Q1 1:30ALARoydell Williams 11 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:27ALAJase McClellan 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:04ALAJermaine Burton 5 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →