Central Michigan vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsBUF
- Q4 2:43CMUTyson Davis 5 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–37
- Q3 9:19BUFRon Cook Jr. 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)7–37
- Q3 13:16BUFDevin Grant 58 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)7–30
- Q2 0:00BUFAlex McNulty 48 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 1:48BUFRon Cook Jr. 3 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)7–20
- Q2 5:00BUFAlex McNulty 44 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:57CMUJesse Prewitt III 2 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:10BUFAlex McNulty 19 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:15BUFDevin Grant 29 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BUF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassJase Bauer 28/49, 280 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJase Bauer 6 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecMarion Lukes 7 REC, 73 YDS
- PassCole Snyder 20/32, 232 YDS
- RushRon Cook Jr. 11 CAR, 53 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBoobie Curry 4 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 530 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:57CMU +18%
Jesse Prewitt III 2 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)
- Q1 12:15BUF +17%
Devin Grant 29 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)
- Q2 1:48BUF +15%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q2 5:00BUF +9%
Alex McNulty 44 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 3:10BUF +7%
Alex McNulty 19 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 13:16BUF +6%
Devin Grant 58 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Buffalo?
Central Michigan 13, Buffalo 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
| CMU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Total yards | 355 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 232 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 28/49 | Comp/Att | 20/32 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 27:43 | Possession | 32:17 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:10 BUF field goal on 4th & 1 at CMU 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:43CMUTyson Davis 5 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–37
- Q3 9:19BUFRon Cook Jr. 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)7–37
- Q3 13:16BUFDevin Grant 58 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)7–30
- Q2 0:00BUFAlex McNulty 48 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 1:48BUFRon Cook Jr. 3 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)7–20
- Q2 5:00BUFAlex McNulty 44 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:57CMUJesse Prewitt III 2 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:10BUFAlex McNulty 19 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:15BUFDevin Grant 29 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1329, CMU Elo 1344 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -1.8 (56% to win) — 4.3 points clear of BUF's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #102 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Central Michigan leads 9–4 · 38% have been one-possession games
| CMU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.9 (#123) | CORE overall | -14.4 (#107) |
| -6 / +13 | offense / defense | -16 / -2 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 2.24 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →