Georgetown vs. Columbia: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Georgetown2-1

00

Columbia0-1

▸0030

Final

Lawrence A. Wien Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
GEOR	0	0	0	0	0
COLU	6	10	14	0	30

GEORTeam statsCOLU

167Total yards411

135Pass189

32Rush222

14First downs24

3-163rd down6-14

0Turnovers0

28:21Possession31:39

Scoring plays

• Q3 1:05COLUJJ Jenkins 43 Yd pass from Caden Bell (Hugo Merry Kick)0–30
• Q3 3:38COLUCaden Bell 5 Yd Run (Hugo Merry Kick)0–23
• Q2 0:54COLUHugo Merry 25 Yd Field Goal 0–16
• Q2 12:30COLUTy'son Edwards 2 Yd Run (Hugo Merry Kick)0–13
• Q1 8:10COLUCaden Bell 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

COLU −6.5

Against the number

COLU covered

line COLU −6.5

What the numbers say

• GEOR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and COLU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 4.4

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

COLU 100%50%GEOR 100%

Kickoff155 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

COLU (top)GEOR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: COLU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

COLU −6.5

Closing total

35.0

Model line

—

Actual result

GEOR 0 – 30 COLU

Leaders

Georgetown

• PassTyler Knoop 16/37, 135 YDS
• RushNaieem Kearney 6 CAR, 27 YDS
• RecCam Pygatt 4 REC, 51 YDS

Columbia

• PassCaden Bell 11/26, 189 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJoey Giorgi 21 CAR, 116 YDS
• RecJJ Jenkins 4 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

20sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.22

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

COLU up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 531 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

COLU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WIdaho vs Lamar42-17WNorth Dakota State vs Maine44-7WEast Carolina vs Gardner-Webb44-0WNorfolk State vs Delaware State44-21WOhio State vs Minnesota37-3

Fourth downs

19 calls

GEOR gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.GEOR 8/11 · COLU 7/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Georgetown vs. Columbia?

Georgetown 0, Columbia 30.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (COLU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

GEOR

COLU

19%

Success rate

49%

-0.12

EPA / pass

0.19

-0.30

EPA / rush

0.28

17%

Early-down success

50%

23%

Pass success

30%

13%

Rush success

60%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

42%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

62%

Pass rate

36%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.4

GEOR

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

COLU

4.4 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

GEOR		COLU
167	Total yards	411
135	Passing yards	189
32	Rushing yards	222
14	First downs	24
3-16	3rd down	6-14
1-4	4th down	2-3
16/37	Comp/Att	11/26
3.6	Yards per pass	7.3
1.3	Yards per rush	4.7
0	Turnovers	0
7-40	Penalties	7-59
28:21	Possession	31:39

Fourth downs

19 calls

GEOR

8/11 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

COLU

7/8 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 6:08 GEOR go for it on 4th & 8 at COLU 12. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.70 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

GEOR 0/11 scoring drives← own end zone →COLU 5/11 scoring drives

COLUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· opp 37Q1

COLUMISS7 pl, 15 yds· opp 40Q1

GEORPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

COLUTD9 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1

GEORPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 18Q1

GEORPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 20Q1

COLUTD15 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

GEORPUNT8 pl, 37 yds· own 15Q2

COLUPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 6Q2

GEORPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 11Q2

COLUFG10 pl, 52 yds· own 41Q2

GEOREND3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q2

GEORPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

COLUFUM4 pl, 7 yds· opp 39Q3

GEORDOWNS12 pl, 42 yds· midfieldQ3

COLUTD9 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3

GEORPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3

COLUTD3 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3

GEORDOWNS9 pl, 49 yds· own 35Q3

COLUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 16Q4

GEORDOWNS10 pl, 32 yds· opp 44Q4

COLUUncateg8 pl, 43 yds· own 12Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 1:05COLUJJ Jenkins 43 Yd pass from Caden Bell (Hugo Merry Kick)0–30
• Q3 3:38COLUCaden Bell 5 Yd Run (Hugo Merry Kick)0–23
• Q2 0:54COLUHugo Merry 25 Yd Field Goal 0–16
• Q2 12:30COLUTy'son Edwards 2 Yd Run (Hugo Merry Kick)0–13
• Q1 8:10COLUCaden Bell 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →