Bethune-Cookman vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Bethune-Cookman

0014

Memphis

▸0056

Final

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
BETH	7	0	0	7	14
MEM	10	18	21	7	56

BETHTeam statsMEM

91Total yards551

39Pass343

52Rush208

4First downs27

1-153rd down4-12

1Turnovers3

23:17Possession36:43

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:25BETHEjike Brown 19 Yd Fumble Return (Cade Hechter Kick)14–56
• Q4 12:37MEMSutton Smith 3 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–56
• Q3 3:23MEMChristian Carter 7 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)7–49
• Q3 6:27MEMDemeer Blankumsee 47 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)7–42
• Q3 10:59MEMSutton Smith 4 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–35
• Q2 6:26MEMBlake Watson 2 Yd Run (Seth Henigan Pass to Anthony Landphere for Two-Point Conversion)7–28
• Q2 9:13MEMSeth Morgan 26 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q2 13:08MEMBlake Watson 15 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–17
• Q1 2:15BETHAmarie Jones 69 Yd Interception Return (Cade Hechter Kick)7–10
• Q1 5:07MEMSeth Morgan 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 12:28MEMBlake Watson 2 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MEM −49

Against the number

BETH covered

line MEM −49

What the numbers say

• BETH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MEM 100%50%BETH 100%

Kickoff152 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MEM (top)BETH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MEM 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MEM −49

Closing total

59.5

Model line

—

Actual result

BETH 14 – 56 MEM

Leaders

Bethune-Cookman

• PassLuke Sprague 3/6, 21 YDS
• RushJaiden Bivens 1 CAR, 24 YDS
• RecOmari Stewart 1 REC, 20 YDS

Memphis

• PassSeth Henigan 27/36, 334 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
• RushSutton Smith 18 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
• RecDemeer Blankumsee 6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

130

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MEM up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 168 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MEM went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky66-13WWestern Carolina vs Charleston Southern77-28WYale vs Morgan State45-3WMonmouth vs Lehigh49-7WAlabama vs Chattanooga66-10

Fourth downs

19 calls

BETH gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.BETH 11/12 · MEM 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Bethune-Cookman vs. Memphis?

Bethune-Cookman 14, Memphis 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

BETH

MEM

18%

Success rate

56%

-0.47

EPA / pass

0.09

-0.10

EPA / rush

0.27

24%

Early-down success

58%

13%

Pass success

62%

26%

Rush success

51%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

62%

Pass rate

49%

9.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

BETH

9.3 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

MEM

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

BETH		MEM
91	Total yards	551
39	Passing yards	343
52	Rushing yards	208
4	First downs	27
1-15	3rd down	4-12
0-1	4th down	2-2
13/24	Comp/Att	28/38
1.6	Yards per pass	9.0
2.2	Yards per rush	4.8
1	Turnovers	3
7-50	Penalties	5-55
23:17	Possession	36:43

Fourth downs

19 calls

BETH

11/12 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

MEM

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 8:18 BETH punt on 4th & 3 at BETH 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

BETH 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MEM 11/16 scoring drives

MEMTD6 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1

BETHDOWNS7 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q1

MEMFG10 pl, 23 yds· midfieldQ1

BETHPUNT2 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

MEMTD3 pl, 25 yds· opp 44Q1

MEMTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

BETHPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 19Q2

MEMFG7 pl, 11 yds· opp 19Q2

BETHFUM3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

MEMTD4 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q2

BETHPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

MEMINT5 pl, 20 yds· own 39Q2

BETHPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 23Q2

MEMEND5 pl, 24 yds· own 14Q2

BETHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

MEMTD5 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q3

BETHPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3

MEMTD4 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3

BETHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

MEMTD4 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

BETHPUNT3 pl, -14 yds· own 25Q3

MEMTD9 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q3

BETHPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q4

MEMPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 39Q4

BETHPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 12Q4

MEMPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 6Q4

BETHPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 41Q4

MEMTD3 pl, 2 yds· own 17Q4

MEMEND2 pl, -10 yds· own 47Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:25BETHEjike Brown 19 Yd Fumble Return (Cade Hechter Kick)14–56
• Q4 12:37MEMSutton Smith 3 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–56
• Q3 3:23MEMChristian Carter 7 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)7–49
• Q3 6:27MEMDemeer Blankumsee 47 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)7–42
• Q3 10:59MEMSutton Smith 4 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–35
• Q2 6:26MEMBlake Watson 2 Yd Run (Seth Henigan Pass to Anthony Landphere for Two-Point Conversion)7–28
• Q2 9:13MEMSeth Morgan 26 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q2 13:08MEMBlake Watson 15 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–17
• Q1 2:15BETHAmarie Jones 69 Yd Interception Return (Cade Hechter Kick)7–10
• Q1 5:07MEMSeth Morgan 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 12:28MEMBlake Watson 2 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →