Air Force vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsHAW
- Q4 6:20AFMatthew Dapore 21 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q4 11:09HAWMeki Pei 32 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Shipley Kick)10–27
- Q3 7:20HAWPofele Ashlock 19 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)10–20
- Q3 12:46AFDylan Carson 35 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–13
- Q2 0:02HAWBrayden Schager 1 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley PAT failed)3–13
- Q2 3:11AFMatthew Dapore 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:58HAWPofele Ashlock 5 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJensen Jones 3/7, 114 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDylan Carson 13 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCade Harris 1 REC, 65 YDS
- PassBrayden Schager 22/29, 176 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrayden Schager 8 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPofele Ashlock 12 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,138 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:20HAW +30%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 19 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q4 11:09HAW +25%
Meki Pei 32 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Shipley Kick)
- Q3 12:46AF +21%
Dylan Carson run for 35 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
- Q2 0:02HAW +20%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley PAT MISSED)
- Q1 7:58HAW +13%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q4 14:12AF +10%
Dylan Carson run for 11 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Hawai'i?
Air Force 13, Hawai'i 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AF | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 315 | Total yards | 297 |
| 114 | Passing yards | 176 |
| 201 | Rushing yards | 121 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 3/9 | Comp/Att | 22/29 |
| 12.7 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 5-56 |
| 29:26 | Possession | 30:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:12 HAW punt on 4th & 5 at AF 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:20AFMatthew Dapore 21 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q4 11:09HAWMeki Pei 32 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Shipley Kick)10–27
- Q3 7:20HAWPofele Ashlock 19 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)10–20
- Q3 12:46AFDylan Carson 35 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–13
- Q2 0:02HAWBrayden Schager 1 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley PAT failed)3–13
- Q2 3:11AFMatthew Dapore 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:58HAWPofele Ashlock 5 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1062, AF Elo 1663 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW +21.6 (9% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #8 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Air Force leads 14–9–1 · Hawai'i has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| AF | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.4 (#39) | CORE overall | -18.6 (#121) |
| +5 / -3 | offense / defense | -8 / +10 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 1.78 |
| 1.76 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -31 | pass over expected | +16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →