Georgia State vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsARMY
- Q4 1:57GASTTucker Gregg 56 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)31–14
- Q4 2:59GASTJa'Cyais Credle 57 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)24–14
- Q4 14:57ARMYTyhier Tyler 5 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)17–14
- Q3 10:32ARMYTyhier Tyler 1 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)17–7
- Q2 6:03GASTJamyest Williams 33 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)17–0
- Q2 11:14GASTDarren Grainger 13 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:12GASTMichael Hayes 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassDarren Grainger 8/12, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTucker Gregg 16 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Cyais Credle 2 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCade Ballard 1/7, 11 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTyhier Tyler 19 CAR, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTyrell Robinson 1 REC, 11 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:10GAST +31%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43
- Q4 14:57ARMY +24%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
- Q2 11:14GAST +21%
Darren Grainger run for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
- Q2 6:03GAST +17%
Jamyest Williams run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
- Q4 8:49GAST +17%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 6
- Q4 6:51ARMY +15%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 43
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Army?
Georgia State 31, Army 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 365 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 11 |
| 299 | Rushing yards | 354 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 8/12 | Comp/Att | 1/8 |
| 13.1 | Yards per pass | 1.4 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-34 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 21:05 | Possession | 38:55 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:24 GAST go for it on 4th & 7 at ARMY 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57GASTTucker Gregg 56 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)31–14
- Q4 2:59GASTJa'Cyais Credle 57 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)24–14
- Q4 14:57ARMYTyhier Tyler 5 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)17–14
- Q3 10:32ARMYTyhier Tyler 1 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)17–7
- Q2 6:03GASTJamyest Williams 33 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)17–0
- Q2 11:14GASTDarren Grainger 13 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:12GASTMichael Hayes 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1528, GAST Elo 1424 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -6.6 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #67 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| GAST | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.0 (#68) | CORE overall | -11.0 (#103) |
| -2 / -2 | offense / defense | -4 / +7 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 2.37 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -31 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →