UC Davis vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UC Davis
▸
Tulsa
Final
Chapman Stadium
UC DTeam statsTLSA
399Total yards449
311Pass202
88Rush247
25First downs19
10-193rd down2-11
0Turnovers3
35:57Possession24:03
- Q4 7:35UC DIsaiah Gomez 22 Yd Field Goal 19–17
- Q4 11:09UC DIsaiah Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q3 6:46TLSADeneric Prince 59 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)13–17
- Q3 8:13UC DIsaiah Gomez 22 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 0:00UC DIsaiah Gomez 44 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 4:51TLSASteven Anderson 1 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:05TLSAZack Long 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:08UC DMcCallan Castles 12 Yd pass from Hunter Rodrigues (Isaiah Gomez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
TLSA −22
Against the number
UC D covered
line TLSA −22
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
TLSA (top)UC D (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TLSA 0%
Closing line
TLSA −22
Closing total
54.5
Model line
—
Actual result
UC D 19 – 17 TLSA
consensus, liveTLSA −22total 54.5
UC Davis
- PassHunter Rodrigues 28/35, 311 YDS, 1 TD
- RushUlonzo Gilliam Jr. 25 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecJared Harrell 8 REC, 136 YDS
Tulsa
- PassDavis Brin 15/28, 202 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDeneric Prince 14 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeylon Stokes 4 REC, 96 YDS
23sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
142
Points / snap
0.25
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
TLSA went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of UC Davis vs. Tulsa?
UC Davis 19, Tulsa 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
UC D
TLSA
34%
Success rate
52%
0.49
EPA / pass
-0.33
-0.21
EPA / rush
0.55
28%
Early-down success
56%
49%
Pass success
39%
20%
Rush success
65%
5%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
37%
Stuffed rush rate
10%
49%
Pass rate
50%
6.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.8
UC D
6.8 yards to go on 3rd down
80 scrimmage snaps
TLSA
5.8 yards to go on 3rd down
62 scrimmage snaps
| UC D | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 399 | Total yards | 449 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 247 |
| 25 | First downs | 19 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/36 | Comp/Att | 15/28 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-54 | Penalties | 12-122 |
| 35:57 | Possession | 24:03 |
UC D
5/8 with the model
−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
TLSA
4/7 with the model
−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 13:25 TLSA punt on 4th & 4 at UC D 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishUC D 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TLSA 3/11 scoring drives
UC DTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 34Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 0Q1
UC DDOWNS6 pl, 24 yds· own 20Q1
TLSAFG6 pl, 21 yds· opp 44Q1
UC DPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT4 pl, 22 yds· own 32Q2
UC DPUNT10 pl, 27 yds· own 10Q2
TLSATD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
UC DDOWNS6 pl, 39 yds· own 24Q2
UC DPUNT0 pl, 0 yds· opp 37Q2
TLSAINT3 pl, 74 yds· own 8Q2
UC DFG7 pl, 64 yds· own 9Q2
TLSAPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q3
UC DFG9 pl, 87 yds· own 9Q3
TLSATD4 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3
UC DPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q3
TLSAPUNT7 pl, 16 yds· own 20Q3
UC DFG15 pl, 78 yds· own 13Q3
TLSAINT5 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q4
UC DFG4 pl, 2 yds· opp 7Q4
TLSAFUM8 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q4
UC DEND9 pl, 40 yds· own 15Q4
- Q4 7:35UC DIsaiah Gomez 22 Yd Field Goal 19–17
- Q4 11:09UC DIsaiah Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q3 6:46TLSADeneric Prince 59 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)13–17
- Q3 8:13UC DIsaiah Gomez 22 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 0:00UC DIsaiah Gomez 44 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 4:51TLSASteven Anderson 1 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:05TLSAZack Long 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:08UC DMcCallan Castles 12 Yd pass from Hunter Rodrigues (Isaiah Gomez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUC Davis were +22 — a 8% shot
#49 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #11 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →