NC State vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsBC
- Q4 2:04NCSUCary Angeline 15 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)24–45
- Q4 5:28BCAJ Dillon 8 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)17–45
- Q4 8:49NCSUThayer Thomas 6 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:32BCAJ Dillon 3 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)10–38
- Q3 3:35NCSUThayer Thomas 6 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)10–31
- Q3 6:02BCAJ Dillon 2 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)3–31
- Q2 2:51BCDavid Bailey 48 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)3–24
- Q2 5:07BCDavid Bailey 54 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)3–17
- Q2 7:23BCAaron Boumerhi 27 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 11:51NCSUChristopher Dunn 31 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 5:36BCJason Maitre 8 Yd Interception Return (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NCSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassDevin Leary 15/33, 259 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordan Houston 7 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecDevin Carter 6 REC, 140 YDS
- PassDennis Grosel 6/15, 103 YDS
- RushAJ Dillon 34 CAR, 223 YDS, 3 TD
- RecHunter Long 3 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:36BC +18%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted for a TD Jason Maitre return for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q2 5:07BC +15%
David Bailey run for 54 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q2 7:23BC +9%
Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 11:51NCSU +8%
Christopher Dunn 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 2:51BC +7%
David Bailey run for 48 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. Boston College?
NC State 24, Boston College 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BC) was correct.
| NCSU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 366 | Total yards | 532 |
| 310 | Passing yards | 103 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 429 |
| 15 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/44 | Comp/Att | 6/15 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 7.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 8-59 |
| 27:40 | Possession | 32:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:23 NCSU punt on 4th & 1 at NCSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:04NCSUCary Angeline 15 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)24–45
- Q4 5:28BCAJ Dillon 8 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)17–45
- Q4 8:49NCSUThayer Thomas 6 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:32BCAJ Dillon 3 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)10–38
- Q3 3:35NCSUThayer Thomas 6 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)10–31
- Q3 6:02BCAJ Dillon 2 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)3–31
- Q2 2:51BCDavid Bailey 48 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)3–24
- Q2 5:07BCDavid Bailey 54 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)3–17
- Q2 7:23BCAaron Boumerhi 27 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 11:51NCSUChristopher Dunn 31 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 5:36BCJason Maitre 8 Yd Interception Return (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1513, NCSU Elo 1545 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC -1.1 (54% to win) — 5.1 points clear of BC's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #82 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Boston College leads 11–8 · 47% have been one-possession games
| NCSU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#113) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#68) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | +8 / +10 |
| 1.61 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 2.71 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →