Houston vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsUNT
- Q4 3:01HOUPatrick Carr 12 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)46–25
- Q4 5:06UNTJason Pirtle 15 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Ethan Mooney Kick)39–25
- Q4 13:35HOUBryson Smith 60 Yd Punt Return (Clayton Tune Pass to Marquez Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)39–18
- Q3 4:13UNTJyaire Shorter 33 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–18
- Q3 6:57HOUMarquez Stevenson 82 Yd Kickoff Return (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)31–12
- Q3 7:12UNTTre Siggers 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q3 11:19HOUPatrick Carr 2 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)24–6
- Q2 0:00UNTEthan Mooney 46 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 11:20UNTEthan Mooney 41 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 14:35HOUDalton Witherspoon 26 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 3:27HOUCourtney Lark 12 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:58HOUPatrick Carr 68 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassClayton Tune 16/20, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- RushPatrick Carr 16 CAR, 139 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMarquez Stevenson 7 REC, 64 YDS
- PassMason Fine 35/55, 353 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTre Siggers 14 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Lawrence 9 REC, 120 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:58HOU +19%
Patrick Carr run for 68 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q3 11:19HOU +19%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q1 3:27HOU +18%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 12 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q3 6:57HOU +15%
Ethan Mooney kickoff for 47 yds, Marquez Stevenson return for 82 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q3 7:12UNT +10%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q3 4:13UNT +8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 33 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. North Texas?
Houston 46, North Texas 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Total yards | 456 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 360 |
| 235 | Rushing yards | 96 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 8-22 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 4-7 |
| 16/20 | Comp/Att | 36/58 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 6-57 |
| 27:02 | Possession | 32:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:22 UNT go for it on 4th & 8 at UNT 17. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.04 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:01HOUPatrick Carr 12 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)46–25
- Q4 5:06UNTJason Pirtle 15 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Ethan Mooney Kick)39–25
- Q4 13:35HOUBryson Smith 60 Yd Punt Return (Clayton Tune Pass to Marquez Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)39–18
- Q3 4:13UNTJyaire Shorter 33 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–18
- Q3 6:57HOUMarquez Stevenson 82 Yd Kickoff Return (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)31–12
- Q3 7:12UNTTre Siggers 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q3 11:19HOUPatrick Carr 2 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)24–6
- Q2 0:00UNTEthan Mooney 46 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 11:20UNTEthan Mooney 41 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 14:35HOUDalton Witherspoon 26 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 3:27HOUCourtney Lark 12 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:58HOUPatrick Carr 68 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1503, HOU Elo 1461 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -4.1 (62% to win) — 3.4 points clear of HOU's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #50 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Houston leads 7–5 · Houston has won 5 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| HOU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.0 (#76) | CORE overall | -9.4 (#98) |
| +2 / +6 | offense / defense | -5 / +4 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.72 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →