Georgia Tech vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsMIA
- OT 0:00GTJordan Mason 1 Yd Run (Brenton King Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:53GTAhmarean Brown 35 Yd pass from James Graham (Brenton King Kick)21–21
- Q2 10:37MIACam'Ron Harris 19 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Turner Davidson Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:10GTNathan Cottrell 41 Yd pass from Pressley Harvin III (Brenton King Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:04MIAK.J. Osborn 13 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Turner Davidson Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:17MIAN'Kosi Perry 1 Yd Run (Turner Davidson Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:35GTJa'Quon Griffin 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brenton King Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJames Graham 9/18, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJordan Mason 20 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNathan Cottrell 1 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- PassN'Kosi Perry 16/28, 188 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCam'Ron Harris 18 CAR, 136 YDS
- RecDee Wiggins 2 REC, 62 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:26MIA +43%
Turner Davidson 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Antwan Owens
- OT 0:00GT +32%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
- Q4 5:41GT +22%
Graham, J. pass complete to Sanders, A. for 12 yards to the GT36 (Bolden, B.), PENALTY GT holding (Quinney, Z.) 10 yards to the GT14, NO PLAY
- Q2 0:53GT +20%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 35 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
- Q1 12:35GT +17%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Demetrius Knight II for a loss of 11 yards N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by GTech Ja'Quon Griffin, return for 0 yards for a TD, (Brenton King…
- OT 0:00GT +16%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Miami?
Georgia Tech 28, Miami 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Total yards | 357 |
| 138 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 10/19 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-82 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 32:24 | Possession | 27:36 |
Costliest call
Q3 15:00 MIA punt on 4th & 21 at GT 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00GTJordan Mason 1 Yd Run (Brenton King Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:53GTAhmarean Brown 35 Yd pass from James Graham (Brenton King Kick)21–21
- Q2 10:37MIACam'Ron Harris 19 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Turner Davidson Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:10GTNathan Cottrell 41 Yd pass from Pressley Harvin III (Brenton King Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:04MIAK.J. Osborn 13 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Turner Davidson Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:17MIAN'Kosi Perry 1 Yd Run (Turner Davidson Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:35GTJa'Quon Griffin 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brenton King Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1580, GT Elo 1408 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -9.3 (74% to win) — 9.2 points clear of GT's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #11 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 15–14 · Georgia Tech has won 2 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| GT | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.5 (#106) | CORE overall | +8.7 (#35) |
| -6 / +7 | offense / defense | -2 / -11 |
| 1.20 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 2.83 | allowed / drive | 1.78 |
| 46% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →