#12James Graham

WR·Georgia Tech·20191.7 pts line value1st Round

James Graham is a Workhorse Receiver WR for Georgia Tech. James's 2019 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 264 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So James Graham's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

87/193 Comp/Att1164 Pass yards12 Pass TD7 INT45.1% Comp %

Rushing

290 Rush yards3 Rush TD99 Carries2.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs WR peers

Efficiency80
Volume100
Explosiveness36
Consistency0
Pass-Down89

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (80th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Virginia (SP+ 6).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2019	153	0.210	1.9	32.1
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2018	144	0.360	2.3	51.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	@Clemson	L14-52	28.1	0.32	0.50	-0.18
2	vsSouth Florida	W14-10	-9.8	-0.13	-0.35	0.04
5	@Temple	L2-24	3.2	-0.28	-0.31	0.09
6	vsNorth Carolina	L22-38	10.3	0.20	0.22	0.16
7	@Duke	L23-41	-1.8	0.17	0.15	0.25
8	@Miami	W28-21	9.6	0.09	0.04	0.21
10	vsPittsburgh	L10-20	4.1	-0.03	-0.15	0.21
11	@Virginia	L28-33	6.3	0.68	0.77	0.43
12	vsVirginia Tech	L0-45	8.0	-0.47	-0.59	-0.27
13	vsNC State	W28-26	-6.3	0.64	0.58	0.70
14	vsGeorgia	L7-52	26.8	-0.15	-0.16	-0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.4%

Passing plays

75.3%

Rushing plays

21.3%

Standard downs

37.5%

Passing downs

53.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.25
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.09 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.