Toledo vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsWMU
- Q4 8:13TOLCody Thompson 8 Yd pass from Eli Peters (Jameson Vest Kick)51–24
- Q3 4:43WMUJamauri Bogan 1 Yd Run (Gavin Peddie Kick)44–24
- Q3 9:25TOLBryant Koback 3 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)44–17
- Q3 12:46TOLCody Thompson 18 Yd pass from Eli Peters (Jameson Vest Kick)37–17
- Q3 14:07TOLReggie Gilliam 34 Yd pass from Eli Peters (Jameson Vest Kick)30–17
- Q2 0:00TOLJameson Vest 45 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q2 0:24WMUJayden Reed 62 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)20–17
- Q2 1:08TOLJameson Vest 28 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 4:04WMUGavin Peddie 25 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 12:08TOLJameson Vest 25 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 4:39TOLDiontae Johnson 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Guadagni (Jameson Vest Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:48WMUJayden Reed 25 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:34TOLCody Thompson 10 Yd pass from Mitchell Guadagni (Jameson Vest Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMitchell Guadagni 10/18, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBryant Koback 10 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCody Thompson 6 REC, 63 YDS, 3 TD
- PassKaleb Eleby 23/28, 293 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJamauri Bogan 10 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayden Reed 6 REC, 103 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:24WMU +22%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 62 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
- Q1 4:39TOL +20%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
- Q3 14:07TOL +19%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 34 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
- Q1 9:34TOL +18%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 10 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
- Q1 7:48WMU +18%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 25 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
- Q3 12:46TOL +13%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Western Michigan?
Toledo 51, Western Michigan 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 515 | Total yards | 432 |
| 247 | Passing yards | 307 |
| 268 | Rushing yards | 125 |
| 25 | First downs | 17 |
| 2-9 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 25/32 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 7.7 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-56 | Penalties | 8-76 |
| 27:36 | Possession | 32:24 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:30 TOL punt on 4th & 1 at TOL 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:13TOLCody Thompson 8 Yd pass from Eli Peters (Jameson Vest Kick)51–24
- Q3 4:43WMUJamauri Bogan 1 Yd Run (Gavin Peddie Kick)44–24
- Q3 9:25TOLBryant Koback 3 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)44–17
- Q3 12:46TOLCody Thompson 18 Yd pass from Eli Peters (Jameson Vest Kick)37–17
- Q3 14:07TOLReggie Gilliam 34 Yd pass from Eli Peters (Jameson Vest Kick)30–17
- Q2 0:00TOLJameson Vest 45 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q2 0:24WMUJayden Reed 62 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)20–17
- Q2 1:08TOLJameson Vest 28 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 4:04WMUGavin Peddie 25 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 12:08TOLJameson Vest 25 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 4:39TOLDiontae Johnson 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Guadagni (Jameson Vest Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:48WMUJayden Reed 25 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:34TOLCody Thompson 10 Yd pass from Mitchell Guadagni (Jameson Vest Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1455, TOL Elo 1442 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -2.9 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #84 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Toledo leads 39–24 · 37% have been one-possession games
| TOL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 (#83) | CORE overall | -10.2 (#97) |
| +4 / +7 | offense / defense | +0 / +11 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.28 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →