Ohio State vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsPUR
- Q4 2:08PURMarkus Bailey 41 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Evans Kick)20–49
- Q4 3:37PURRondale Moore 43 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)20–42
- Q4 4:40OSUTerry McLaurin 34 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)20–35
- Q4 6:46PURD.J. Knox 40 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)13–35
- Q4 9:36OSUJohnnie Dixon 32 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)13–28
- Q4 11:39PURD.J. Knox 42 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)6–28
- Q3 8:36PURD.J. Knox 1 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)6–21
- Q3 12:25OSUBlake Haubeil 23 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 0:27PURRondale Moore 9 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)3–14
- Q2 14:14OSUBlake Haubeil 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 1:10PURIsaac Zico 13 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PUR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassDwayne Haskins 49/73, 470 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMike Weber 9 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecKJ Hill Jr. 9 REC, 105 YDS
- PassDavid Blough 25/43, 378 YDS, 3 TD
- RushD.J. Knox 16 CAR, 128 YDS, 3 TD
- RecRondale Moore 12 REC, 170 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:36PUR +25%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)
- Q2 0:27PUR +25%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
- Q1 1:10PUR +20%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 13 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
- Q3 4:42PUR +9%
Joe Schopper punt for 47 yds, K.J. Hill returns for 16 yds to the Prdue 37
- Q3 12:25OSU +8%
Blake Haubeil 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:25PUR +8%
David Blough pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 15 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Purdue?
Ohio State 20, Purdue 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OSU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 546 | Total yards | 539 |
| 470 | Passing yards | 378 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 161 |
| 31 | First downs | 24 |
| 11-22 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 49/73 | Comp/Att | 25/43 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-86 | Penalties | 7-95 |
| 31:17 | Possession | 28:43 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:09 PUR punt on 4th & 1 at PUR 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:08PURMarkus Bailey 41 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Evans Kick)20–49
- Q4 3:37PURRondale Moore 43 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)20–42
- Q4 4:40OSUTerry McLaurin 34 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)20–35
- Q4 6:46PURD.J. Knox 40 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)13–35
- Q4 9:36OSUJohnnie Dixon 32 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)13–28
- Q4 11:39PURD.J. Knox 42 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)6–28
- Q3 8:36PURD.J. Knox 1 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)6–21
- Q3 12:25OSUBlake Haubeil 23 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 0:27PURRondale Moore 9 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)3–14
- Q2 14:14OSUBlake Haubeil 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 1:10PURIsaac Zico 13 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1686, OSU Elo 2057 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +12.4 (22% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #29 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #1 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Ohio State leads 44–15–2 · Ohio State has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| OSU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.0 (#10) | CORE overall | +1.3 (#56) |
| +15 / -4 | offense / defense | +4 / +3 |
| 2.94 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →