Clemson vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLEMTeam statsALA
- Q3 0:21CLEMTee Higgins 5 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Greg Huegel Kick)44–16
- Q3 8:26CLEMJustyn Ross 74 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Greg Huegel PAT failed)37–16
- Q2 0:45CLEMGreg Huegel 36 Yd Field Goal 31–16
- Q2 4:38CLEMTravis Etienne 5 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Greg Huegel Kick)28–16
- Q2 11:38CLEMTravis Etienne 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)21–16
- Q2 14:18ALAJoseph Bulovas 25 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q1 6:23ALAHale Hentges 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas PAT failed)14–13
- Q1 10:35CLEMTravis Etienne 17 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:05ALAJerry Jeudy 62 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:20CLEMA.J. Terrell 44 Yd Interception Return (Greg Huegel Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ALA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.2
- PassTrevor Lawrence 20/32, 347 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTravis Etienne Jr. 14 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJustyn Ross 6 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTua Tagovailoa 22/34, 295 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushNajee Harris 9 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecJerry Jeudy 5 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLEM up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:38CLEM +21%
Travis Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
- Q2 4:38CLEM +18%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
- Q1 10:35CLEM +18%
Travis Etienne run for 17 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
- Q1 12:05ALA +17%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 62 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
- Q1 13:20CLEM +17%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted for a TD A.J. Terrell return for 44 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
- Q1 6:23ALA +15%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Hale Hentges for 1 yd for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas PAT MISSED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Clemson vs. Alabama?
Clemson 44, Alabama 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CLEM | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 482 | Total yards | 443 |
| 347 | Passing yards | 295 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 21 | First downs | 23 |
| 10-15 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1-12 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 28:23 | Possession | 31:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 15:00 ALA go for it on 4th & 6 at CLEM 22. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.56 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:21CLEMTee Higgins 5 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Greg Huegel Kick)44–16
- Q3 8:26CLEMJustyn Ross 74 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Greg Huegel PAT failed)37–16
- Q2 0:45CLEMGreg Huegel 36 Yd Field Goal 31–16
- Q2 4:38CLEMTravis Etienne 5 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Greg Huegel Kick)28–16
- Q2 11:38CLEMTravis Etienne 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)21–16
- Q2 14:18ALAJoseph Bulovas 25 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q1 6:23ALAHale Hentges 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas PAT failed)14–13
- Q1 10:35CLEMTravis Etienne 17 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:05ALAJerry Jeudy 62 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:20CLEMA.J. Terrell 44 Yd Interception Return (Greg Huegel Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 2327, CLEM Elo 2318 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ALA -0.4 (52% to win) — 5.1 points clear of CLEM's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #74 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #63 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Alabama leads 14–4 · 28% have been one-possession games
| CLEM | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +40.2 (#2) | CORE overall | +49.7 (#1) |
| +17 / -23 | offense / defense | +29 / -21 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 3.57 |
| 0.92 | allowed / drive | 1.21 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →