Trevor Lawrence is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Clemson. Trevor's 2020 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 366 plays — a average rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Trevor Lawrence's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2018
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9999
- National rank
- #1
- High school
- Cartersville
- Hometown
- Cartersville, GA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2020 Production
Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency73
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat100
- Consistency80
- Clutch82
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.52 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.61 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs The Citadel.
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.45
- Passing downs
- 0.66
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.52 / 0.54
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.