Stanford vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 3:10STANJJ Arcega-Whiteside 5 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Conrad Ukropina Kick)34–10
- Q3 1:28ARIZJosh Pollack 27 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 4:36STANChristian McCaffrey 6 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)27–7
- Q3 6:05STANConrad Ukropina 26 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:20STANConrad Ukropina 45 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 3:40ARIZTrey Griffey 38 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)14–7
- Q2 8:39STANChristian McCaffrey 18 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Conrad Ukropina Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:21STANChristian McCaffrey 45 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and STAN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 6.7
- ARIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassKeller Chryst 14/30, 104 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushChristian McCaffrey 23 CAR, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrenton Irwin 5 REC, 34 YDS
- PassBrandon Dawkins 5/15, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrandon Dawkins 17 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecTrey Griffey 2 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:21STAN +17%
Christian McCaffrey run for 45 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
- Q2 8:39STAN +11%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 18 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
- Q2 3:40ARIZ +11%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Trey Griffey for 38 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
- Q2 0:20STAN +5%
Conrad Ukropina 45 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. Arizona?
Stanford 34, Arizona 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (STAN) was correct.
| STAN | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Total yards | 286 |
| 104 | Passing yards | 116 |
| 237 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 17 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 14/31 | Comp/Att | 5/20 |
| 3.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 33:52 | Possession | 26:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 ARIZ punt on 4th & 1 at ARIZ 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:10STANJJ Arcega-Whiteside 5 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Conrad Ukropina Kick)34–10
- Q3 1:28ARIZJosh Pollack 27 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 4:36STANChristian McCaffrey 6 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)27–7
- Q3 6:05STANConrad Ukropina 26 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:20STANConrad Ukropina 45 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 3:40ARIZTrey Griffey 38 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)14–7
- Q2 8:39STANChristian McCaffrey 18 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Conrad Ukropina Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:21STANChristian McCaffrey 45 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1401, STAN Elo 1681 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +8.8 (29% to win) — 7.3 points clear of STAN's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #99 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Stanford leads 17–15 · 34% have been one-possession games
| STAN | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.0 (#36) | CORE overall | -1.7 (#72) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | +3 / +5 |
| 2.20 | points / drive | 1.97 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 3.28 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →