Duke vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsND
- Q4 1:24DUKEAJ Reed 19 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q4 6:47DUKEAnthony Nash 64 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)35–35
- Q4 7:46NDEquanimeous St. Brown 12 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)28–35
- Q3 4:54NDJosh Adams 9 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)28–28
- Q2 1:22DUKEAnthony Nash 32 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)28–21
- Q2 3:28NDDexter Williams 13 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:35DUKEQuay Chambers 25 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:32DUKEJela Duncan 18 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:44DUKEShaun Wilson 96 Yd Kickoff Return (AJ Reed Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:57NDKevin Stepherson 44 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:07NDDeShone Kizer 8 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ND played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 4.4
- PassDaniel Jones 24/32, 290 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJela Duncan 21 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Nash 6 REC, 123 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDeShone Kizer 22/37, 381 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeShone Kizer 11 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEquanimeous St. Brown 6 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:47DUKE +44%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 64 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
- Q4 1:24DUKE +43%
AJ Reed 19 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:40DUKE +32%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 46
- Q4 1:27ND +28%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. Brown
- Q3 4:54ND +27%
Josh Adams run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
- Q4 7:46ND +26%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. Notre Dame?
Duke 38, Notre Dame 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ND, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DUKE | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 498 | Total yards | 534 |
| 290 | Passing yards | 381 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 24 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/32 | Comp/Att | 22/37 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 30:35 | Possession | 29:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:44 ND punt on 4th & 1 at ND 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:24DUKEAJ Reed 19 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q4 6:47DUKEAnthony Nash 64 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)35–35
- Q4 7:46NDEquanimeous St. Brown 12 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)28–35
- Q3 4:54NDJosh Adams 9 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)28–28
- Q2 1:22DUKEAnthony Nash 32 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)28–21
- Q2 3:28NDDexter Williams 13 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:35DUKEQuay Chambers 25 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:32DUKEJela Duncan 18 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:44DUKEShaun Wilson 96 Yd Kickoff Return (AJ Reed Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:57NDKevin Stepherson 44 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:07NDDeShone Kizer 8 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 1716, DUKE Elo 1465 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -12.4 (80% to win) — 7.6 points clear of DUKE's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #8 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Notre Dame leads 6–2 · Notre Dame has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#67) | CORE overall | +8.3 (#34) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | +7 / -1 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →