Boise State vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsBAY
- Q4 1:20BOISCedrick Wilson 28 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q4 10:03BAYIshmael Zamora 14 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)6–31
- Q3 3:18BAYChris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 0:11BOISTyler Rausa 26 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 4:19BAYJaMycal Hasty 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:14BAYKD Cannon 68 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)3–14
- Q2 13:40BOISTyler Rausa 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 5:53BAYKD Cannon 30 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrett Rypien 32/51, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJeremy McNichols 19 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecCedrick Wilson Jr. 6 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassZach Smith 28/39, 375 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerence Williams 25 CAR, 103 YDS
- RecKD Cannon 14 REC, 226 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:14BAY +21%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 68 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q1 5:53BAY +19%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q2 4:19BAY +17%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q2 13:40BOIS +9%
Tyler Rausa 24 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 0:11BOIS +6%
Tyler Rausa 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:45BAY +5%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Baylor?
Boise State 12, Baylor 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Total yards | 515 |
| 305 | Passing yards | 375 |
| 83 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 25 | First downs | 29 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 32/51 | Comp/Att | 29/40 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 11-125 |
| 32:55 | Possession | 27:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:50 BOIS go for it on 4th & 10 at BAY 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:20BOISCedrick Wilson 28 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q4 10:03BAYIshmael Zamora 14 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)6–31
- Q3 3:18BAYChris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 0:11BOISTyler Rausa 26 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 4:19BAYJaMycal Hasty 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:14BAYKD Cannon 68 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)3–14
- Q2 13:40BOISTyler Rausa 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 5:53BAYKD Cannon 30 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1531, BOIS Elo 1740 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects BAY +8.4 (30% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #64 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →| BOIS | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.5 (#20) | CORE overall | +8.9 (#33) |
| +10 / -4 | offense / defense | +4 / -5 |
| 2.80 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →