Stanford vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsNU
- Q4 3:38NUJack Mitchell 49 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q4 7:26STANConrad Ukropina 37 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q4 12:21NUJack Mitchell 19 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 6:18NUClayton Thorson 42 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)3–10
- Q1 0:52NUJack Mitchell 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:33STANConrad Ukropina 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- STAN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassKevin Hogan 20/35, 155 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChristian McCaffrey 12 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecAustin Hooper 5 REC, 45 YDS
- PassClayton Thorson 12/24, 105 YDS
- RushJustin Jackson 28 CAR, 134 YDS
- RecChristian Jones 5 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:18NU +23%
Clayton Thorson run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
- Q4 4:50NU +21%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 1 yd to the Stanf 35
- Q4 14:25NU +14%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 32
- Q4 12:21NU +11%
Jack Mitchell 19 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 5:45NU +10%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37
- Q4 12:15STAN +8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 13 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. Northwestern?
Stanford 6, Northwestern 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked STAN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| STAN | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 330 |
| 155 | Passing yards | 105 |
| 85 | Rushing yards | 225 |
| 17 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 12-22 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/35 | Comp/Att | 12/25 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-25 | Penalties | 5-57 |
| 28:08 | Possession | 31:52 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:21 NU field goal on 4th & 2 at STAN 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:38NUJack Mitchell 49 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q4 7:26STANConrad Ukropina 37 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q4 12:21NUJack Mitchell 19 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 6:18NUClayton Thorson 42 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)3–10
- Q1 0:52NUJack Mitchell 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:33STANConrad Ukropina 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NU Elo 1482, STAN Elo 1747 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NU +8.2 (30% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #40 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #58 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Stanford leads 4–2–2 · 25% have been one-possession games
| STAN | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.3 (#11) | CORE overall | +2.2 (#62) |
| +16 / -4 | offense / defense | -13 / -15 |
| 3.38 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 1.90 | allowed / drive | 1.41 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →