Penn State vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsTEM
- Q4 5:41TEMAustin Jones 30 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q4 11:14TEMJahad Thomas 24 Yd Run (Austin Jones Kick)10–24
- Q3 1:00TEMP.J. Walker 1 Yd Run (Austin Jones Kick)10–17
- Q3 6:23TEMAustin Jones 40 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 2:25TEMJahad Thomas 1 Yd Run (Austin Jones Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:34PSUAkeel Lynch 42 Yd Run (Joey Julius Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:47PSUJoey Julius 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.1 vs 3rd & 7.4
- TEM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassChristian Hackenberg 11/25, 103 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAkeel Lynch 10 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Godwin Jr. 5 REC, 81 YDS
- PassPJ Walker 15/20, 143 YDS
- RushJahad Thomas 29 CAR, 135 YDS, 2 TD
- RecVentell Bryant 2 REC, 41 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:00TEM +40%
P.J. Walker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
- Q2 2:25TEM +19%
Jahad Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
- Q1 6:34PSU +18%
Akeel Lynch run for 42 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
- Q4 11:14TEM +13%
Jahad Thomas run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
- Q3 6:23TEM +12%
Austin Jones 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 1:13PSU +11%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Sharif Finch return for 26 yds to the PnSt 2
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Temple?
Penn State 10, Temple 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEM) was correct.
| PSU | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 183 | Total yards | 317 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 168 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 9 | First downs | 15 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/25 | Comp/Att | 16/21 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-42 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 23:45 | Possession | 36:15 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:11 TEM punt on 4th & 1 at TEM 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:41TEMAustin Jones 30 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q4 11:14TEMJahad Thomas 24 Yd Run (Austin Jones Kick)10–24
- Q3 1:00TEMP.J. Walker 1 Yd Run (Austin Jones Kick)10–17
- Q3 6:23TEMAustin Jones 40 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 2:25TEMJahad Thomas 1 Yd Run (Austin Jones Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:34PSUAkeel Lynch 42 Yd Run (Joey Julius Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:47PSUJoey Julius 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1489, PSU Elo 1556 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM +0.3 (50% to win) — 8.2 points clear of TEM's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #17 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Penn State leads 40–4–1 · 27% have been one-possession games
| PSU | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.6 (#52) | CORE overall | +8.6 (#38) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | -2 / -10 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 2.23 |
| 1.58 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →