#14Christian Hackenberg

QB·Penn State·20131.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Christian Hackenberg is a Volume Passer for Penn State. Christian's 2013 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 380 plays — a developing rate for the QB. A five-star recruit in the class of 2013, Christian has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Christian Hackenberg's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2013

★★★★★

5-Star · Blue chip

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9927
National rank: #13
High school: Fork Union Military (HS)
Hometown: Fork Union, VA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2013 Production

Passing

231/392 Comp/Att2955 Pass yards20 Pass TD10 INT58.9% Comp %

Rushing

-68 Rush yards4 Rush TD49 Carries-1.4 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts85 Punt yards42.5 Yards/punt43 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency68
Clutch36

Player type

Volume Passer

High-rep offense that leans on this QB's arm — value comes through cumulative production across a high number of plays.

High play countFranchise-volume role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Purdue (SP+ -16).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSyracuse	W23-17	0.0	22/31	278	2	2	60.9	-12	0	0.13
2	vsEastern Michigan	W45-7	-35.7	23/33	311	1	1	52.1	-16	0	0.44
3	vsUCF	L31-34	12.3	21/28	262	1	0	80.1	-3	0	0.52
4	vsKent State	W34-0	-13.8	13/35	176	1	1	27.9	-1	0	-0.01
6	@Indiana	L24-44	1.4	30/55	340	3	0	44.6	-19	0	0.12
7	vsMichigan	W43-40	11.1	23/44	305	3	2	50.8	-16	1	0.14
9	@Ohio State	L14-63	28.4	12/23	112	1	2	8.5	-21	0	-0.01
10	vsIllinois	W24-17	-4.0	20/32	240	1	0	82.2	10	1	0.32
11	@Minnesota	L10-24	2.5	14/25	163	0	0	9.5	-6	0	0.03
12	vsPurdue	W45-21	-15.7	16/23	212	1	1	92.4	6	1	0.70
13	vsNebraska	L20-23	11.6	16/33	217	2	1	47.5	6	1	-0.10
14	@Wisconsin	W31-24	22.4	21/30	339	4	0	87.1	4	0	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

45.5%

Passing plays

94.4%

Rushing plays

5.3%

Standard downs

35.9%

Passing downs

69.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.18
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / -0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.