Ole Miss vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsMEM
- Q4 0:55MEMJake Elliott 27 Yd Field Goal 24–37
- Q4 9:44MEMJake Elliott 42 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q3 0:16MISSGary Wunderlich 24 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 6:59MISSLaquon Treadwell 6 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)21–31
- Q3 11:31MEMMose Frazier 31 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:34MEMAnthony Miller 6 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:52MEMSam Craft 4 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:49MEMJake Elliott 23 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 2:12MEMAlan Cross 1 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:44MISSDamore'ea Stringfellow 23 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:40MISSQuincy Adeboyejo 68 Yd pass from Laquon Treadwell (Gary Wunderlich Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassChad Kelly 33/47, 372 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJaylen Walton 7 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecLaquon Treadwell 14 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- PassPaxton Lynch 39/53, 384 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJarvis Cooper 17 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecAnthony Miller 10 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:52MEM +23%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q2 0:34MEM +22%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q1 14:40MISS +16%
Laquon Treadwell pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 68 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
- Q3 6:59MISS +14%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 6 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
- Q3 11:31MEM +14%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q1 2:12MEM +13%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Memphis?
Ole Miss 24, Memphis 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MISS | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 480 | Total yards | 491 |
| 440 | Passing yards | 384 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 25 | First downs | 31 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 12-20 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 34/48 | Comp/Att | 39/53 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-90 | Penalties | 10-80 |
| 22:32 | Possession | 37:28 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:17 MEM punt on 4th & 10 at MISS 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:55MEMJake Elliott 27 Yd Field Goal 24–37
- Q4 9:44MEMJake Elliott 42 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q3 0:16MISSGary Wunderlich 24 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 6:59MISSLaquon Treadwell 6 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)21–31
- Q3 11:31MEMMose Frazier 31 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:34MEMAnthony Miller 6 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:52MEMSam Craft 4 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:49MEMJake Elliott 23 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 2:12MEMAlan Cross 1 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:44MISSDamore'ea Stringfellow 23 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:40MISSQuincy Adeboyejo 68 Yd pass from Laquon Treadwell (Gary Wunderlich Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1639, MISS Elo 1786 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM +3.5 (42% to win) — 6.5 points clear of MEM's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #33 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #12 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Ole Miss leads 49–12–2 · 33% have been one-possession games
| MISS | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +24.0 (#5) | CORE overall | +6.0 (#48) |
| +14 / -10 | offense / defense | +6 / -0 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 2.78 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 2.17 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →