Bowling Green vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsMD
- Q4 5:24BGSUGehrig Dieter 14 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)48–27
- Q4 8:18BGSURobbie Rhodes 44 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)41–27
- Q4 9:53BGSURoger Lewis 27 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)34–27
- Q4 12:30MDP. Hills pass,to L. Jacobs for 22 yds for a TD, (B. Craddock KICK)27–27
- Q4 14:27BGSURyan Burbrink 5 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)27–20
- Q3 7:54BGSUTravis Greene 3 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)20–20
- Q3 10:47MDP. Hills pass,to D. Moore for 42 yds for a TD, (B. Craddock KICK)13–20
- Q3 12:10BGSURoger Lewis 58 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)13–13
- Q2 7:52MDB. Craddock 23 yd FG GOOD6–13
- Q2 12:05BGSUDerek Lee 5 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–10
- Q1 0:00MDJ. Davidson punt for 54 yds,W. Likely returns for 85 yds for a TD, (B. Craddock KICK)0–10
- Q1 12:45MDB. Craddock 41 yd FG GOOD0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassMatt Quinn Johnson 36/55, 491 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
- RushFred Coppet 15 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecRoger Lewis 15 REC, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- PassPerry Hills 15/30, 168 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushPerry Hills 8 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecAmba Etta-Tawo 5 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:53BGSU +39%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 27 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
- Q4 14:27BGSU +36%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
- Q4 12:30MD +34%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 22 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)
- Q3 10:47MD +25%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 42 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)
- Q3 7:54BGSU +23%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
- Q3 12:10BGSU +21%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 58 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Maryland?
Bowling Green 48, Maryland 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 692 | Total yards | 341 |
| 491 | Passing yards | 185 |
| 201 | Rushing yards | 156 |
| 35 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 36/55 | Comp/Att | 16/33 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 10-80 | Penalties | 6-57 |
| 37:57 | Possession | 22:03 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:08 MD punt on 4th & 1 at MD 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:24BGSUGehrig Dieter 14 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)48–27
- Q4 8:18BGSURobbie Rhodes 44 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)41–27
- Q4 9:53BGSURoger Lewis 27 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)34–27
- Q4 12:30MDP. Hills pass,to L. Jacobs for 22 yds for a TD, (B. Craddock KICK)27–27
- Q4 14:27BGSURyan Burbrink 5 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)27–20
- Q3 7:54BGSUTravis Greene 3 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)20–20
- Q3 10:47MDP. Hills pass,to D. Moore for 42 yds for a TD, (B. Craddock KICK)13–20
- Q3 12:10BGSURoger Lewis 58 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)13–13
- Q2 7:52MDB. Craddock 23 yd FG GOOD6–13
- Q2 12:05BGSUDerek Lee 5 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–10
- Q1 0:00MDJ. Davidson punt for 54 yds,W. Likely returns for 85 yds for a TD, (B. Craddock KICK)0–10
- Q1 12:45MDB. Craddock 41 yd FG GOOD0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1495, BGSU Elo 1322 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -9.3 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #38 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| BGSU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.6 (#18) | CORE overall | -3.9 (#80) |
| +17 / +0 | offense / defense | -6 / -2 |
| 3.25 | points / drive | 1.51 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →