Washington vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsCAL
- Q4 12:20WASHCameron Van Winkle 42 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q3 4:21CALDaniel Lasco 3 Yd Run (James Langford Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:29WASHJohn Ross 86 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:23WASHDiAndre Campbell 11 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:44WASHJoshua Perkins 25 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:41WASHShaq Thompson 100 Yd Fumble Return (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCyler Miles 22/29, 273 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLavon Coleman 15 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecJohn Ross 4 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJared Goff 35/51, 304 YDS
- RushDaniel Lasco 17 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenny Lawler 6 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:41WASH +8%
Shaq Thompson 100 Yd Fumble Return (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)
- Q1 1:44WASH +6%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 25 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. California?
Washington 31, California 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| WASH | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 368 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 304 |
| 111 | Rushing yards | 64 |
| 18 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 22/29 | Comp/Att | 35/51 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-76 | Penalties | 7-56 |
| 27:08 | Possession | 32:27 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:53 WASH punt on 4th & 1 at CAL 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:20WASHCameron Van Winkle 42 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q3 4:21CALDaniel Lasco 3 Yd Run (James Langford Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:29WASHJohn Ross 86 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:23WASHDiAndre Campbell 11 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:44WASHJoshua Perkins 25 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:41WASHShaq Thompson 100 Yd Fumble Return (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1290, WASH Elo 1762 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +16.5 (15% to win) — 19.0 points clear of WASH's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #94 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Washington leads 55–41–3 · Washington has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| WASH | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 1.48 | allowed / drive | 3.02 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 22% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →