UTEP vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 14:46UTEPJimmy Musgrave 19 Yd Interception Return (Jay Mattox Kick)34–0
- Q3 0:03UTEPJay Mattox 47 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q3 1:57UTEPAaron Jones 24 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)24–0
- Q2 3:00UTEPJay Mattox 20 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 4:19UTEPAaron Jones 40 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:54UTEPJaquan White 75 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJameill Showers 12/18, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAaron Jones Sr. 21 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaquan White 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAustin Robinson 6/20, 32 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDavid Glasco II 5 CAR, 16 YDS
- RecKam Jones 2 REC, 14 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTEP up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:19UTEP +21%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 40 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
- Q1 11:54UTEP +14%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jaquan White for 75 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
- Q3 1:57UTEP +14%
Aaron Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
- Q2 3:00UTEP +11%
Jay Mattox 20 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:20UTEP +6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 46
- Q2 1:08UTEP +6%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. UTSA?
UTEP 34, UTSA 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTEP | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 70 |
| 191 | Passing yards | 32 |
| 160 | Rushing yards | 38 |
| 15 | First downs | 2 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 1-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 12/18 | Comp/Att | 6/20 |
| 10.6 | Yards per pass | 1.6 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 39:12 | Possession | 20:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:00 UTEP field goal on 4th & 2 at UTSA 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:46UTEPJimmy Musgrave 19 Yd Interception Return (Jay Mattox Kick)34–0
- Q3 0:03UTEPJay Mattox 47 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q3 1:57UTEPAaron Jones 24 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)24–0
- Q2 3:00UTEPJay Mattox 20 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 4:19UTEPAaron Jones 40 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:54UTEPJaquan White 75 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1418, UTEP Elo 1085 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -15.7 (85% to win) — 3.2 points clear of UTSA's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #46 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →UTSA leads 8–2 · UTSA has won 6 straight · 20% have been one-possession games
| UTEP | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 39% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →