Minnesota vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsMICH
- Q4 7:27MICHDevin Gardner 3 Yd Run (Matt Wile Kick)30–14
- Q4 12:50MINNRyan Santoso 25 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 2:52MINNMaxx Williams 1 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)27–7
- Q3 6:42MINNDe'Vondre Campbell 30 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Santoso Kick)20–7
- Q3 6:56MINNRyan Santoso 48 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 0:00MINNRyan Santoso 24 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 8:00MINNMitch Leidner 10 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)7–7
- Q2 11:10MICHDe'Veon Smith 10 Yd Run (Matt Wile Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMitch Leidner 14/22, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDavid Cobb 32 CAR, 183 YDS
- RecMaxx Williams 4 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- PassShane Morris 7/19, 49 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDe'Veon Smith 9 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevin Funchess 4 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:00MINN +19%
Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
- Q2 11:10MICH +17%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
- Q3 6:42MINN +16%
Shane Morris pass intercepted for a TD De'Vondre Campbell return for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
- Q3 2:52MINN +13%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
- Q3 6:56MINN +13%
Ryan Santoso 48 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00MINN +11%
Ryan Santoso 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Michigan?
Minnesota 30, Michigan 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MINN | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 171 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 88 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 20 | First downs | 12 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 14/23 | Comp/Att | 10/25 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 2-23 |
| 34:40 | Possession | 25:20 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:50 MINN field goal on 4th & 2 at MICH 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:27MICHDevin Gardner 3 Yd Run (Matt Wile Kick)30–14
- Q4 12:50MINNRyan Santoso 25 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 2:52MINNMaxx Williams 1 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)27–7
- Q3 6:42MINNDe'Vondre Campbell 30 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Santoso Kick)20–7
- Q3 6:56MINNRyan Santoso 48 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 0:00MINNRyan Santoso 24 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 8:00MINNMitch Leidner 10 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)7–7
- Q2 11:10MICHDe'Veon Smith 10 Yd Run (Matt Wile Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1614, MINN Elo 1520 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -6.2 (67% to win) — 3.8 points clear of MINN's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #47 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Michigan leads 78–25–3 · Michigan has won 5 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| MINN | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.19 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 1.73 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 27% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →