#7Mitch Leidner

QB·Minnesota·20155.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Mitch Leidner is a Clutch Passer for Minnesota. Mitch's 2015 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 501 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mitch Leidner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

242/407 Comp/Att2701 Pass yards14 Pass TD11 INT59.5% Comp %

Rushing

270 Rush yards6 Rush TD107 Carries2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat29
Consistency75
Clutch72

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.18 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.49 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Iowa (SP+ 9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTCU	L17-23	19.0	19/35	197	1	0	17.8	23	0	0.15
2	@Colorado State	W23-20	0.5	23/45	233	2	0	33.5	47	0	0.08
3	vsKent State	W10-7	-11.9	17/27	184	1	2	48.9	15	0	0.26
4	vsOhio	W27-24	-0.5	22/31	264	0	0	68.4	22	1	0.34
5	@Northwestern	L0-27	0.2	10/21	72	0	1	5.3	1	0	-0.17
6	@Purdue	W41-13	-7.4	8/12	59	2	1	22.4	14	1	0.09
7	vsNebraska	L25-48	11.1	26/40	301	1	2	69.8	-1	1	0.23
9	vsMichigan	L26-29	19.7	16/33	317	1	0	80.3	37	1	0.44
10	@Ohio State	L14-28	29.5	27/44	281	2	1	47.9	-13	0	0.35
11	@Iowa	L35-40	9.3	19/27	259	1	0	77.8	32	1	0.49
12	vsIllinois	W32-23	2.7	15/25	88	1	0	64.0	64	0	0.15
13	vsWisconsin	L21-31	15.1	16/37	223	1	3	21.5	10	0	0.02
1	vsCentral Michigan	W21-14	-3.1	24/30	223	1	1	87.3	19	1	0.38

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.9%

Passing plays

94.8%

Rushing plays

21.6%

Standard downs

50.0%

Passing downs

72.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.