Fresno State vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsRICE
- Q4 10:07RICEDarik Dillard 1 Yd Run (James Hairston Kick)6–30
- Q3 6:18RICEDennis Parks 40 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (James Hairston Kick)6–23
- Q2 8:53FRESKody Kroening 40 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q1 0:04RICEMario Hull 69 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (James Hairston Kick)3–16
- Q1 0:23RICEJordan Taylor 14 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (James Hairston PAT failed)3–9
- Q1 2:16FRESKody Kroening 44 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:32RICEJames Hairston 21 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- RICE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassZack Greenlee 7/18, 49 YDS
- RushMarteze Waller 15 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecJosh Harper 4 REC, 25 YDS
- PassDriphus Jackson 15/24, 318 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJowan Davis 13 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecDennis Parks 5 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:04RICE +18%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 69 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)
- Q1 0:23RICE +17%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 14 yds for a TD, (James Hairston PAT MISSED)
- Q3 6:18RICE +11%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 40 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)
- Q1 2:16FRES +8%
Kody Kroening 44 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 10:32RICE +8%
James Hairston 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 8:53FRES +6%
Kody Kroening 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Rice?
Fresno State 6, Rice 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (RICE) was correct.
| FRES | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 463 |
| 93 | Passing yards | 326 |
| 162 | Rushing yards | 137 |
| 15 | First downs | 16 |
| 7-21 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 17/38 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 2.4 | Yards per pass | 12.5 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-15 | Penalties | 12-100 |
| 27:45 | Possession | 32:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:27 RICE punt on 4th & 2 at RICE 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:07RICEDarik Dillard 1 Yd Run (James Hairston Kick)6–30
- Q3 6:18RICEDennis Parks 40 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (James Hairston Kick)6–23
- Q2 8:53FRESKody Kroening 40 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q1 0:04RICEMario Hull 69 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (James Hairston Kick)3–16
- Q1 0:23RICEJordan Taylor 14 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (James Hairston PAT failed)3–9
- Q1 2:16FRESKody Kroening 44 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:32RICEJames Hairston 21 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1391, FRES Elo 1400 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects RICE +0.4 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #91 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| FRES | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.30 |
| 2.45 | allowed / drive | 2.15 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 29% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →