#33Marteze Waller

RB·Fresno State·20142.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Marteze Waller is a Committee Back for Fresno State. Marteze's 2014 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 251 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marteze Waller's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1368 Rush yards11 Rush TD225 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions120 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency10
Volume67
Explosiveness62
Consistency35
Receiving49

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency35th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Nevada (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@USC	L13-52	17.1	16	97	6.1	2	3	25	0	0.36
2	@Utah	L27-59	8.8	15	61	4.1	0	3	6	0	-0.18
3	vsNebraska	L19-55	13.1	7	19	2.7	0	2	0	0	-0.35
4	vsSouthern Utah	W56-16	—	16	117	7.3	1	1	1	0	0.33
5	@New Mexico	W35-24	-15.0	19	163	8.6	0	2	25	0	0.26
6	vsSan Diego State	W24-13	1.0	16	67	4.2	1	3	3	0	0.02
7	@UNLV	L27-30	-17.6	17	137	8.1	1	4	38	0	0.18
8	@Boise State	L27-37	11.6	18	164	9.1	2	3	12	0	0.43
10	vsWyoming	L17-45	-14.0	18	116	6.4	1	2	2	0	0.13
11	vsSan José State	W38-24	-11.5	22	145	6.6	1	—	—	—	0.27
13	@Nevada	W40-20	-7.3	6	46	7.7	0	—	—	—	0.67
14	vsHawai'i	W28-21	-15.0	25	137	5.5	2	2	5	0	0.28
15	@Boise State	L14-28	11.6	15	23	1.5	0	1	3	0	-0.41
1	vsRice	L6-30	-3.1	15	76	5.1	0	1	0	0	-0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.6%

Passing plays

6.3%

Rushing plays

42.9%

Standard downs

27.7%

Passing downs

16.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.18
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.22 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.