Cal Poly vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Cal Poly
New Mexico State
▸Final
Aggie Memorial Stadium
CAL Team statsNMSU
265Total yards355
6Pass158
259Rush197
14First downs21
4-123rd down9-16
2Turnovers1
25:52Possession34:08
- Q4 8:51NMSULarry Rose III 6 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)10–28
- Q3 7:05NMSULarry Rose III 6 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:20CAL Stephen Pyle 24 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 8:07NMSUXavier Hall 1 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:48CAL Brandon Howe 3 Yd Run (Stephen Pyle Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:46NMSUTeldrick Morgan 30 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
CAL −7
Against the number
NMSU covered
line CAL −7
Kickoff147 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NMSU (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 100%
Closing line
CAL −7
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
CAL 10 – 28 NMSU
consensus, liveCAL −7
Cal Poly
- PassDano Graves 1/3, 4 YDS
- RushKori Garcia 11 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecChris Nicholls 1 REC, 4 YDS
New Mexico State
- PassTyler Rogers 18/27, 158 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLarry Rose III 30 CAR, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTeldrick Morgan 6 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
25.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
130
Points / snap
0.29
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
NMSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Cal Poly vs. New Mexico State?
Cal Poly 10, New Mexico State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NMSU) was correct.
CAL
NMSU
39%
Success rate
49%
-0.97
EPA / pass
0.28
0.16
EPA / rush
0.04
40%
Early-down success
48%
0%
Pass success
44%
45%
Rush success
51%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
5%
18%
Stuffed rush rate
17%
13%
Pass rate
37%
5.6
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.7
CAL
5.6 yards to go on 3rd down
56 scrimmage snaps
NMSU
5.7 yards to go on 3rd down
74 scrimmage snaps
| CAL | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total yards | 355 |
| 6 | Passing yards | 158 |
| 259 | Rushing yards | 197 |
| 14 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 2/7 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 0.9 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-21 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 25:52 | Possession | 34:08 |
CAL
5/7 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
NMSU
3/6 with the model
−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 0:53 NMSU punt on 4th & 1 at NMSU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishCAL 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 4/12 scoring drives
NMSUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
CAL TD11 pl, 77 yds· opp 35Q1
NMSUPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· opp 35Q1
CAL INT10 pl, 43 yds· own 10Q1
NMSUTD10 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q2
CAL PUNT4 pl, 25 yds· own 35Q2
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 11Q2
CAL PUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 42Q2
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 17Q2
CAL FG5 pl, 45 yds· own 48Q2
NMSUEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 35Q2
CAL PUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 35Q3
NMSUINT3 pl, 5 yds· own 40Q3
CAL FUM1 pl, -6 yds· opp 46Q3
NMSUTD10 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q3
CAL PUNT6 pl, 23 yds· opp 35Q3
NMSUPUNT7 pl, 30 yds· own 10Q3
CAL PUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 11Q3
NMSUTD11 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4
CAL PUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 35Q4
NMSUPUNT3 pl, -15 yds· opp 45Q4
CAL PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4
NMSUDOWNS7 pl, 40 yds· own 32Q4
CAL END3 pl, 10 yds· own 28Q4
- Q4 8:51NMSULarry Rose III 6 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)10–28
- Q3 7:05NMSULarry Rose III 6 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:20CAL Stephen Pyle 24 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 8:07NMSUXavier Hall 1 Yd Run (Maxwell Johnson Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:48CAL Brandon Howe 3 Yd Run (Stephen Pyle Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:46NMSUTeldrick Morgan 30 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNew Mexico State were +7 — a 33% shot
#45 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #62 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →