Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsWKU
- Q4 2:55WKUAnthony Wales 1 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)31–59
- Q4 10:52BGSUTravis Greene 8 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)31–52
- Q4 13:29WKUJared Dangerfield 5 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)24–52
- Q3 4:23WKUWillie McNeal 20 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)24–45
- Q3 7:16BGSURonnie Moore 41 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)24–38
- Q3 8:54BGSUAndre Givens 3 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)17–38
- Q3 11:24WKUJared Dangerfield 5 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)10–38
- Q2 0:00WKUGarrett Schwettman 29 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 2:50BGSUTyler Tate 52 Yd Field Goal 10–28
- Q2 4:41WKUWillie McNeal 9 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)7–28
- Q2 6:54BGSUFred Coppet 1 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)7–21
- Q2 8:36WKUAntwane Grant 34 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:29WKUTaywan Taylor 55 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:12WKULeon Allen 2 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMatt Quinn Johnson 25/36, 313 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTravis Calton Greene 18 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGehrig Dieter 7 REC, 78 YDS
- PassBrandon Doughty 46/56, 569 YDS, 6 TD
- RushLeon Allen 27 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTaywan Taylor 12 REC, 185 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:29WKU +19%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 55 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
- Q1 10:12WKU +18%
Leon Allen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
- Q2 8:36WKU +14%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 34 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
- Q3 4:23WKU +13%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 20 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
- Q2 4:41WKU +13%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 9 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
- Q2 6:54BGSU +13%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky?
Bowling Green 31, Western Kentucky 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 465 | Total yards | 708 |
| 313 | Passing yards | 569 |
| 152 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 26 | First downs | 40 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 14-18 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/36 | Comp/Att | 46/56 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-90 | Penalties | 7-66 |
| 24:01 | Possession | 35:59 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:54 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:55WKUAnthony Wales 1 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)31–59
- Q4 10:52BGSUTravis Greene 8 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)31–52
- Q4 13:29WKUJared Dangerfield 5 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)24–52
- Q3 4:23WKUWillie McNeal 20 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)24–45
- Q3 7:16BGSURonnie Moore 41 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)24–38
- Q3 8:54BGSUAndre Givens 3 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)17–38
- Q3 11:24WKUJared Dangerfield 5 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)10–38
- Q2 0:00WKUGarrett Schwettman 29 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 2:50BGSUTyler Tate 52 Yd Field Goal 10–28
- Q2 4:41WKUWillie McNeal 9 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)7–28
- Q2 6:54BGSUFred Coppet 1 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)7–21
- Q2 8:36WKUAntwane Grant 34 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:29WKUTaywan Taylor 55 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:12WKULeon Allen 2 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1469, BGSU Elo 1695 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU +6.6 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #61 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| BGSU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | points / drive | 3.22 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.72 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 22% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →